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The paper provides indications and analysis of the positions of the most influential Shia powers and parties in Iraq after the fall of the predominantly Sunni city of Mosul and the rise of the Islamic State group in 2014. In addition to the Najaf-based supreme Shia religious authority led by ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the Shia parties represented in government since 2003, the paper shed light on the increasingly powerful Iran-backed armed groups Popular Mobilization (Hashd Sha'abi) and how their appeal, visibility and influence had changed after the fall of Mosul. The question of the Iraqi national identity and how it interacts with the Shia identity is addressed in the paper in light of the discourse of the Shia powers and relations between Shia Iraqis and other communities.

Milestones in Democratic Transition in the Arab World 1/1/2020 - 29/2/2020

The Arab Opinion Index 2019/2020 data on the Algerian Hirak shows the consolidation of the phenomenon of taking to the streets to protest as the dominant form of expression of political, economic, and social demands at a time when forms of institutional political participation, such as party and trade union membership, are declining. The Index results confirmed that tyranny, monopolisation of power and corruption are the main factors that led people to protest and gave the movement the great dynamism that characterises it. Although the Algerian street movement succeeded in forcing Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the former President of Algeria, to resign, preventing him from running for a fifth term as president and raising hopes for an improvement in economic and social indicators, these hopes quickly faded after the conviction grew that the regime had not changed and that the general situation remained as it was before.

The Arab Opinion Index (2019/ 2020) offers interesting data on public opinion about political regimes. Our study used Principal Component Analysis to evaluate the public opinion trends toward the suitability of some political regimes for Arab countries. It is clear from the the first conclusion that the Arab citizen adheres to the democratic priority, despite other priorities related to religious and security concerns. However, it seems that the political elite did not give much importance to this priority; this is why the Arab countries experienced a series of failures in the democratic process. The second conclusion is that some countries share similarities, which differ from other groups of Arab societies. Our method helps to better understand the factors and components behind the differences or similarities between Arab countries.

This study reassesses the experience of political openness in Algeria within the analytical and explanatory categories of political economy. It is built on the premise that the transition from a totalitarian authoritarian regime to a democratic one presupposes the transition from a rentier economy linked to the external market and dominated by rentier groups, to a productive economy based on the national bourgeoisie exploitation of local labour to create wealth. The study argues that the experience of democratic transition in Algeria faltered due to the failure of the rentier groups to undergo capitalist transformation that could have allowed the emergence of the two main sides of the democratic equation: the bourgeoisie and the working class. The political elites that control the rentier economy were willing to accept political but not economic reforms that could have led to a reconsideration of the hegemonic relations within society and liberated it from the grip of power. In this regard, the failure of the economic reforms introduced by the Hamrouche government (1989 - 1991) was a prelude to the disruption of the democratic transition and prevention of the development of a civil society capable of gaining its independence from authority and, on the other hand, the independence of the Algerian state from the global market.

This paper presents Arab public opinion trends on the Palestinian issue, through data collected by the ACRPS-conducted Arab Opinion Index. It assesses whether Palestine is a pan-Arab issue or one that concerns Palestinians alone. It also evaluates Arab regional attitudes towards recognition of Israel and towards the positions and policies adopted by some international or regional powers towards Palestine. The paper demonstrates that Arab public opinion strongly leans towards dealing with Palestine on the basis that it is a pan-Arab issue, not specific to the Palestinian people alone. It also shows that public opinion in the region is almost unanimous (at a rate of 88%) in rejecting any national recognition of Israel and that the assessment of Arab public opinion of regional or international powers in the region is determined by their policies towards the Palestinian issue.

Israel’s Knesset was dissolved on December 8, 2014, and the following elections were scheduled for March 17 2015. This paper discusses the reasons why Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu held early elections only 20 months after he formed his government. By tackling the changes faced within Israel’s political parties and the power shift among competing parties, the paper sheds light on the elections agenda and Netanyahu’s chances to form another government.

​Original Title: The Palestine Laboratory: How Israel Exports the Technology of Occupation .around the World. Author: Antony Loewenstein.

Palestine Over Two Months 1/9-31/10/2020

This report chronicles some of the most significant developments relating to the Arab-Israeli conflict.