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The major turning points of the Syrian revolution, beginning with the earliest public demonstrations on March 15, 2011, are here examined. The author revisits speeches made by President Bashar Al Assad in the early days of the uprising, in which he was quoted as discounting the likelihood of a revolution affecting Syria the way it did other Arab countries on the grounds that his government’s policies were in line with public sentiment. The paper then revisits the regime’s excessively violent repression of the first peaceful protests, which led to the militarization of the revolution. The author holds the international community, including the Arab League and the United Nations culpable for ensuing large scale slaughter of Syrian civilians, standing idly by even as it became apparent that Assad was mercilessly killing his own people. Meanwhile, Syria has become the site for a number of world and regional powers—including the United States, the United Kingdom, France Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, China, Iran and Russia—to advance their fundamentally incompatible policies. As a consequence of these competing foreign interventions, the author contends that the return of normalcy in Syria will be impossible for the foreseeable future.

Military interventions in Sudanese politics can be attributed to a number of factors, most pertinently: excessive politicization throughout society, social institutions, trades unions and syndicates as well as educational and religious institutions. In this sense, the Sudanese was not an exception, merely one of many highly politicized institutions. This paper concludes that the three different military coups which took power in Sudan were only able to do so with the aiding and abetting of civilian political forces, such as the National Umma Party, the Islamic Front and an array of leftist forces all—to varying extents—colluded with the military to further their political aims. With the military ranks reflecting wider societal politicization, military coups were effectively an extension of the political process by other means.

The seventh Annual Conference on Democratic Transition focusing on External Factors and the post-2011 Democratic Transition in the Arab Region. The conference, which is being held by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies on 21-22 September 2018, examines the nature of regional and international roles and their impact on the transition to democracy in the Arab countries following the revolutions of 2011.

​The fall of authoritarian regimes across the Arab region has uncovered a range of structural fissures within Arab society, unleashing unprecedented, pernicious exploitation of identity politics adopted by a range of local and international actor. Today, sectarian prejudice and stereotypes have seeped into not only the media in the Arab region, but also its academic discourse.

​The study addresses the issue of armament and the security dilemma in the Maghreb region, focusing on the rivalry between Algeria and Morocco. It argues that the armament level of the two countries has risen significantly in recent years, in the context of structural rivalry, making the Maghreb region one of the most heavily armed regions in the world, despite the absence of existential inter-Maghreb threats. The study attempts to examine the armament issue in the Maghreb and to understand its determinants and developments, focusing on the factors that influence it and on its likely consequences. Adopting the realist approach as a theoretical framework, it analyses SIRPI's data to demonstrate the high volume of Maghreb military expenditure and its evolution, and examines the Maghreb armament and its determinants and military risks. The study concludes that: the armament of the two countries reflects their competition over leadership and their threat perceptions; the armament dynamic is independent from the inter-Maghreb political tensions; the existence of a potential military confrontation between the two regional powers due to the interaction between emerging factors and structural ones.

​This article seeks to understand the secession of Somaliland by exploring its historical, political and legal motives and rationales. It suggests that the secession is a notable outcome of the structural, political and cultural factors surrounding the emergence and unification of the Somali state post-independence. The article argues that the historical perspective offers a better understanding of not only the secession of Somaliland, but also why Somalia is a textbook case for the failure of the nation-state. The article starts with a general background on the modern socio-historical history of the Somali peninsula and analyses four key moments, starting from the history of the formation of the modern state in British and Italian Somaliland, leading to the establishment of Somalia as a unified nation-state. Accordingly, the article explains the rationale behind the secession of Somaliland from Somalia in 1991, as well as the obstacles to this secession, and concludes with an evaluation of the attitude and approaches of the international community.

The presence of the external factor is usually related to the context of the popular hirak, the periods of political transition and the transitional phases in many countries. This factor is evident in countries with a geopolitical position in regional and international competition. This study discusses the variable of the external factor in the 22 February 2019 hirak in Algeria by examining the limits of international and regional interventions in steering the course of the popular hirak compared to other Arab cases where the external factor seemed to be more influential. It aims to discuss the determinants of Algeria's relations with regional and international powers and to explain the issue of the lack of external interference in the popular hirak, ending with the modalities of the future of the turbulent political path and discussing the possibilities of transformation from abroad. The study concludes that the lack of regional and international intervention in the popular hirak is mainly related to geopolitical and strategic constraints, far from value and normative considerations. The behaviour of external forces is determined by Algeria's geopolitical situation. The risks of instability in the country would create highly complex security challenges in the Mediterranean region. Added to this is the importance of Algeria in assessing the strategic balances in the region, especially for European security.

ﺗﻄﻤﺢ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ إﻟﻰ ا ﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ: "ﻟﻤﺎذا أدرﺟﺖ دول ﺣﺼﺎر ﻗﻄﺮ ﻃﻠﺒًﺎ ﺑﺈﻏﻼق ﺷﺒﻜﺔ اﻟﺠﺰﻳﺮة ﺿﻤﻦ ﺟﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ؟". وﻟﻢ ﻧﺸﺄ أن ﺗﻜﻮن ا ﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة أو ذات ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ راﻫﻨﺔ. ﺣﺎوﻟﻨﺎ أن ﻧﺴﺘﻘﺪم، وﻓﻖ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺗﺎرﻳﺨﻲ وﺟﻴﻮﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ، اﻟﺴﻴﺎﻗﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺑﻜﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺸﺄت ﻓﻴﻬﺎ اﻟﺠﺰﻳﺮة وﺗﻄﻮرت. وﻋﻤﺪﻧﺎ إﻟﻰ رﺻﺪ اﻟﺮﻫﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﺮﻋﺖ ﻟﻮﺟﻮدﻫﺎ، واﻟﻤﺴﺎرات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺖ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ، واﻟﻤﻀﺎﻣﻴﻦ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻌﺖ إﻟﻰ ﺗﺮوﻳﺠﻬﺎ. وﺗ ﺨﻴﺮﻧﺎ أن ﻧﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﺤﺪدة ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺤﻴﻂ اﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ وردات اﻓﻌﺎل اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ واﻟﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺚ ﻗﻨﺎة ﻓﻀﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻊ إﻋﻼم اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ووﻇﺎﺋﻔﻪ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ وﺗﺒﻨﻲ ﻓﻀﺎءً اﺗﺼﺎﻟﻴًﺎ ﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﺠﻤﻬﻮر وﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ. وﻧﺰﻋﻨﺎ، ﻓﻲ إﻃﺎر اﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻴﺔ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮة، ﻧﺤﻮ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ا ﻋﻼﻣﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﻨﺔ 1996 وﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻗﺪ أﺳﻬﻤﺖ ﺑﻪ اﻟﺠﺰﻳﺮة ﻓﻲ إﺣﺪاث ﻧﻘﻠﺔ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﻌﺔ اﻋﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ، وﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ رأي ﻋﺎم ﻳﺘﺠﺎوز اﻃﺎرﻳﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ واﻟﻮﻃﻨﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ أﺧﺮى. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: ﻗﻨﺎة اﻟﺠﺰﻳﺮة، ﻗﻄﺮ، ازﻣﺔ اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ. This paper seeks to determine why the countries blockading Qatar during the summer of 2017 demanded the closure of the Al Jazeera media network. The author sought to avoid conclusions rooted only in the immediate situation and instead worked towards a historical and geopolitical understanding of the interconnected factors in which Al Jazeera emerged and evolved. The paper also explores a number of the responses which Qatar's regional neighbors could be expected to take to a satellite broadcaster which broke with the tradition across the region of loyalist television stations which promoted the government's vision of the world. This paper seeks to understand the impact of Al Jazeera on the creation of a supra-national identity.

​The study is premised on the assumption that the US-Iranian tensions under the Trump administration represents a new chapter in the crisis in the US-Iranian relationship. This extreme hostility was related to US domestic politics and the bordering on personal rivalry of President Trump with his predecessor, President Barack Obama, in domestic and foreign policy. One of the most important policy manifestations of this administrative divergence concerns the Nuclear Agreement with Iran, signed in 2015. Opposition to the Nuclear Agreement united Gulf players such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, who considered shared hostility towards Iran as a bridge to strengthen their relations with the US on the one hand; while also forming a strong front, in the presence of Israel, to weaken the Iranian regime without necessarily replacing it.

This report highlights some of the major milestones of the Arab democratic transition. The countries covered include Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.