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Milestones in Democratic Transition in the Arab World 1/5-30/6/2020.

This report presents Palestinian public opinion trends in Gaza, through data collected by the 2019-2020 Arab Opinion Index. This paper reviews basic descriptive statistics from opinion on major issues relating to the economic and political situation and compares these Gaza findings with the Arab Opinion Index 2019-2020 data from the West Bank. The data shows that the situation in Gaza is extremely bad, not only in terms of economic and living conditions, but also in terms of societal confidence and the legitimacy of political actors. The report attempts to answer a set of questions surrounding the Palestinians' assessment of their economic, security and political conditions in Gaza; their conditions compared with those in the West Bank; their confidence in political parties; and levels of corruption.

This paper presents the findings of a public opinion poll on Arab attitudes towards the policies of the United States government. The survey questions addressed attitudes towards a set of specific US policies throughout 2014. Further questions also sought to understand the reasons behind a widespread Arab opposition to the United States. The results indicate that Arab attitudes towards the United States, which are broadly negative, are rooted in US foreign policy towards the Arab region.

Where the Cold War crises took place in the context of a bilateral international system represented by the Western and Soviet entities, the recent Ukrainian crisis is played out on an international stage where the US remains the world’s unipolar power. This paper discusses the major differences between these contexts with the aim of better understanding the possible outcomes and ramifications of the crisis. Such an understanding seems vital, for if the Ukrainian crisis continues without reaching a political or diplomatic solution, the cost will be higher for Russia and EU countries than it will be for the United States. The paper shows how European countries will pay a higher price for the crisis, compared with others in the region with different foreign policy priorities due to the EU’s current political and economic interests that tie it to Russia.

Book Title: The Question of the Syrian Kurds: Fact, History, Myth [Arabic]

Illegal immigration is one of the key threats faced by European countries mid-way through the first decade of the new millennium. The continued flow of vast numbers of migrants by both legal and illegal means has triggered phobias and racism in European societies. European governments have tried to deal with the issue by taking a security approach, recruiting all possible manner of oppressive police methods and deterrence laws to tackle the phenomenon. The issue of migration has now become fully 'securitized.' The migration issue began as the result of several internal and external factors. The external factors included the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2011 and their role in promoting accusations of terrorisms against Muslims, who account for a large proportion of migrants bound for Europe. Internal factors include exploitation of the migration phenomenon by far-right parties that seek to link migration to negative phenomena like organized crime and terrorism. This had a correspondingly negative effect on the rights of migrants, which are stipulated in international conventions and treaties. Foremost of these is the right to political asylum, an essential right that has since come under severe restriction by European countries that seek to fully eliminate it. Securitizing migration has also impacted relations between migrants and host societies, which have grown increasingly xenophobic, rejecting everything foreign and rallying around nationalist slogans, giving credence to claims of a 'clash of civilization.

As the first study to address the very recent issue “secret evidence,” this paper relies on primary and unstudied sources. It reviews the context of recent changes in the European justice system and the impact Hamas has left in filing its petition to have the group lifted from the list of terrorist groups in late 2010. The political dimension in the new law is also considered, including how it was given a legal guise to appear consistent with the requirement of justice. The timid international legal positions and reactions to these developments, the role played by the US and Britain, as well as the mimicry of Israel with regard to the secret evidence law are also discussed. The study concludes by tackling the implications of the new law, and the possibility of Hamas succeeding or failing to have itself removed from the terror list.

The Palestinian Authority today is facing enormous pressure. Lack of international and regional political support, coupled with declining economic support and internal legitimacy, has led to a situation in which the PA's days may be numbered. This is especially true given Israel's seeming commitment to eminent annexation of much of the PA's promised territory. But Palestinian society today has undergone immense transformation since 1994; Palestinians are more fragmented, demobilized, and politically stagnant than ever before. If the Palestinian Authority collapses, and its formalized institutions which have overtaken Palestinian society for the past two decades disappear, how will Palestinians respond? Will the territories degenerate into violence, or will Palestinians coordinate to undertake strategies to organize a Palestinian response? This brief review Palestinian public opinion on preferences for non-violent strategies versus violent strategies, and examines what variables impact this dynamic.

The war against ISIL is a critical US national security interest. It not only threatens to create a major center of terrorism and extremism in a critical part of the Middle East, and one that could spread to threaten the flow of energy exports and the global economy, but could become a major center of international terrorism. It is important to understand, however, that ISIL is only one cause of instability in the region, and only one of the threats caused by spreading sectarian and ethnic violence. Iraq is a key case in point. No defeat of ISIL can bring Iraq security or stability, or give it the unity and independent strength to resist pressure from Iran and threats based in Syria and Turkey. No military course of action can—by itself – create a stable regime and economy, and reduce tension between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites, and Arabs and Kurds, to workable levels. Like Syria, Libya, and Yemen, military action must be joined to political and economic action and the creation of some form of viable governance.

The study discusses the position of the European Union on Jerusalem and the so-called "Deal of the Century," with US recognition of the city as Israel's undivided capital. In view of the special nature of the European-American relationship, the study tries to clarify the extent to which Europe's existing position regarding the city will remain intact, given reluctance on the part of many international parties to take part in "the Deal," or if Europe now will follow and support America. The classic (and generally sustained) European position that Jerusalem is one of the "permanent status" issues between the Palestinians and the Israelis comes under scrutiny, along with the possibilities of Europe deviating from its stance and politically drifting towards America – giving in to pressures that could arise with implementation of the "the Deal".