Milestones in Democratic Transition in the Arab World 1/7-31/8/2020.
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Siyasat Arabiya is a bi-monthly peer reviewed academic journal published by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies (ISSN 2307-1583/E-ISSN 2789-326X) dedicated to political science, international relations, and strategic affairs.
Original title: Hyperconnectivity and Its Discontents.
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Dynamics of Fragility in Arab States: The Impact of Economic, Social, and Political Variables on the Trajectory of Fragility (2006–2024)
2026-01-01
This study analyses the dynamics of state fragility in Arab countries from 2006–2024 using the Fragile States Index (FSI, Fund for Peace) and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI). The findings indicate that state fragility in the Arab world is complex and multidimensional, influenced by domestic structural factors, as well as internal and external shocks. Despite an overall increase in fragility, variations were observed among countries; Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine experienced significant increases, while the Gulf countries remained stable, and Iraq and Morocco showed relative improvement. Based on inflection points in the regional FSI series, the study divides the dynamics of fragility into four phases: relative stability (2006-2011), rising fragility (2012-2016), stability at high fragility levels (2017-2020), and slight improvement in indicators (2021-2024). The findings indicate that higher poverty, malnutrition, and low education exacerbate fragility, whereas improvements in GDP per capita, education, health, and economic openness help reduce it. The study highlights that addressing fragility requires long-term policies focused on enhancing governance, social justice, economic diversification, and human development to build more resilient Arab societies in the face of crises.
