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​يتضمّن هذا التقرير توثيقًا لأبرز محطات التحول الديمقراطي في الوطن العربي في المدة 1 أيار/ مايو - 30 حزيران/ يونيو 2021.

Milestones in Democratic Transition in the Arab World 1/11-31/12/2020.

This study analyses the dynamics of state fragility in Arab countries from 2006–2024 using the Fragile States Index (FSI, Fund for Peace) and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI). The findings indicate that state fragility in the Arab world is complex and multidimensional, influenced by domestic structural factors, as well as internal and external shocks. Despite an overall increase in fragility, variations were observed among countries; Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine experienced significant increases, while the Gulf countries remained stable, and Iraq and Morocco showed relative improvement. Based on inflection points in the regional FSI series, the study divides the dynamics of fragility into four phases: relative stability (2006-2011), rising fragility (2012-2016), stability at high fragility levels (2017-2020), and slight improvement in indicators (2021-2024). The findings indicate that higher poverty, malnutrition, and low education exacerbate fragility, whereas improvements in GDP per capita, education, health, and economic openness help reduce it. The study highlights that addressing fragility requires long-term policies focused on enhancing governance, social justice, economic diversification, and human development to build more resilient Arab societies in the face of crises.

This study begins by discussing the concept of legitimacy and then examines the patterns of legitimacy in Egypt since 2013. It specifically focuses on the legitimacy of performance within the field of educational policies and its role in the regime's continuity. The study finds that the regime cannot establish its own legitimacy merely by creating an illusion of effective performance. Instead, it can manage legitimacy through several strategies: shaping public expectations by emphasizing the importance of maintaining public order and providing basic goods and services; influencing public perceptions by highlighting achievements while concealing failures and suppressing criticism; and managing citizens' perceptions of alternatives, such as Islamist groups or a descent into chaos, or both. The study also concludes that the regime's objective is not to secure genuine popular support but to ensure general compliance by persuading the majority that it is more effective in improving their lives than any alternative. This level of legitimacy may be sufficient to encourage adherence to laws and discourage efforts to replace the regime.

India-Qatar relations have come a long way since the two nations established diplomatic ties in 1973. Despite a slow start, relations between the two countries have improved significantly in recent years, driven by shared economic interests and increasing cooperation in areas such as energy, defence, and culture. This article examines the trajectory of India-Qatar relations and the factors that have shaped their development. Within the broader theoretical framework of Complex Interdependence, this study analyses the economic and geopolitical factors driving India's engagement with Qatar, as well as the role of cultural and people-to-people ties in strengthening the relationship. It also considers the challenges that have impeded progress in India-Qatar relations, including regional tensions and political differences. Despite the promising growth in India-Qatar relations, this article argues that the relationship remains largely stagnant in the political and strategic domain, with Qatar's independent policymaking contributing to India's inhibitions to pursue a relationship more forcefully beyond economic transactions.

The study criticizes the general framework that has governed the broader current of the researchers in civil-military relations, their method of thinking about the military institution since the inception of the field, the paper presents the theoretical and practical gaps in that literature, in particular the researchers of "Coup-Proofing". The study shows the weakness of the explanatory capabilities of the field in extrapolating and analyzing the historical era that the research seeks to reveal its theoretical and historical ambiguities, which is the phase of political pluralism in Syria between 1954-1958, which the researchers viewed as a democratic phase. The paper examines why did the army step down from the presidency and allowed civil forces to engage in political action at the time, in spite of that phase is in the midst of two series of coups. The paper is based on a basic premise that the army as a military institution do represent wings, sectors, units, brigades, and power relations, before it is an expression of any other social segments, which is in contrast to what the literature says in examining the sociological backgrounds of the officers.

This paper presents Tunisian public opinion trends towards the country’s democratic experience, using data gathered by the ACRPS-published Arab Opinion Index, comparing the 2019/2020 results with previous polls. It also seeks to measure the popular reaction to the decisions taken by the Tunisian President, Kais Saied, in his coup against the constitution, and his disruption of democratic governance mechanisms in order to seize control of the government. The paper ponders the reasons that Tunisians welcome the decisions of the Tunisian president, and asks if that means that they have turned their backs on the young democracy they established ten years ago? Finally, the paper monitors a set of indicators regarding Arab public opinion on governing institutions, and the government's seriousness in working to solve economic and social problems, which escalated in severity during the Covid-19 pandemic.

​​​​​This study examines the role of civil society organizations in supporting and enhancing youth participation in peacebuilding within the current peace process in Yemen. It investigates how these organizations' programs affect the type and effectiveness of youth participation in the peacebuilding process. The study uses in-depth interviews with representatives of civil society organizations as well as youth activists who participate in the peacebuilding programs. The results demonstrate that while organizations play an important role in supporting youth participation in peacebuilding, their programs do not necessarily lead to substantive and effective participation for youth either in the negotiation process or decision-making. Furthermore, the study highlights the differences between youth and civil society organizations regarding the peace process definition, the expected roles of actors involved, and the program outcomes. Additionally, it identifies several factors that influence the effectiveness of programs, including the expected role of the United Nations vs. reality, the coordination process between civil society organizations and alliances, the impact of funding, and challenges posed by the conflict environment in Yemen and its effects on program implementation and youth participation. Overall, this study provides a detailed analysis of the insights, challenges, and opportunities for youth engagement in the peacebuilding process through civil society in Yemen, offering observations and results that can be applicable and useful in other conflict contexts.

This study examines how the 2023 Gaza War reshaped maritime security dynamics and geopolitical rivalry in the Red Sea, particularly in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through a complex interplay between great powers and non-state actors. It demonstrates that the Houthi (Ansar Allah) attacks on commercial vessels –framed as support for Gaza – transformed the strait into a global flashpoint that exposed the vulnerability of international supply chains. The study also shows how these developments reactivated U.S.–China rivalry in the Red Sea: the United States adopted a military–security approach in support of Israel's war on Gaza and to reaffirm its role as guarantor of the maritime commons, while China favored a cautious strategy centered on economic influence, calculated non-involvement in military operations, and securing the passage of its vessels through discreet diplomatic channels. The study concludes that the Red Sea has become a space where U.S. naval dominance intersects with China's rising economic power, and where non-state actors increasingly shape regional and global security.

​Drawing on data from the 2024/ 2025 Arab Opinion Index, this paper explores evolving public attitudes toward social media across 14 Arab countries. It examines how individuals use digital platforms to acquire and engage with news as well as political and social discourse, especially in the context of ongoing regional conflicts. The findings reveal high levels of reliance on social media for information, alongside growing concerns about misinformation, censorship, and cultural harm. Despite widespread support for content regulation, many continue to use these platforms for discussing political and social issues. The paper underscores the complexity of digital awareness and engagement in the Arab region and calls for more qualitative research to unpack public views on censorship, freedom of expression, and the impact of social media on political awareness and democratic values.