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The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is taken here as a nucleus for new policies and powerful alliances that seek to establish a new world order; an order where the organization acts as a main pillar of the international power balance. The SCO has transformed from a regional organization with a specific goal into an international one by shaping new positions distinct from those of the United States. This was demonstrated through the SCO’s position on Iran’s nuclear program, the Korean issue, the Syrian crisis, and security issues in central Asia. Since this new international organization includes two permanent members of the Security Council (Russia and China), as well as nuclear powers, such as India and Pakistan, as observers, a serious look at its program seems essential for projecting the outcome of recent shifts in world politics. This paper thus attempts to answer two central questions: How far can the SCO consolidate multipolarity in international relations away from US hegemony? How will this affect the international power balance?

This paper elucidates Arab public opinion towards the international aerial campaign against ISIL (the “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant”) in Iraq and Syria, based on the findings of a dedicated opinion survey. The survey included representative, randomized samples in seven countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, in addition to communities of Syrian refugees in three host countries (Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey). Respondents were asked the extent of their support for the aims of the international campaign as well as the conduct of the airstrikes. Survey questions also take in respondents’ views on a number of related issues. The findings show that the vast majority of Arabs are firmly opposed to ISIL, with only 11% of respondents expressing views which are positive, to varying extents, towards the group.

This paper observes the course of the recent Tunisian elections, analyzes the results, and on the basis of those results explores the coming course of Tunisian democracy. The paper sets out four possible scenarios for the form of alliances that could develop as a result of the inability of the winning party to obtain a comfortable majority. The paper also reviews the significance of the elections in having laid the foundations for a pluralistic political system where power rotates peacefully and which is based on the acknowledgement of the other and not their exclusion, thereby offering a model for the Arab states. The paper highlights the willingness of the parties with an open Islamic frame of reference to become part of the democratic system and participate in supporting and developing it.

​Events in Mosul, which was captured by ISIL on June 9, 2014, cannot be viewed in isolation from the severe political crisis afflicting the post 2003 Iraqi political regime. Generally speaking, radical groups cannot be separated from the political environment that fostered them. They are the product of a structurally imbalanced political situation. The growth of such groups in Iraq, from Al Qaeda to ISIL, provides a textbook lesson of this. They are the expression of an imbalance political situation, even if they develop and assume an independence from the political context that gave birth to them. They grow, develop, and draw oxygen from these imbalances and from sharp political and social divisions. Hence, it is not possible to defend the idea that these groups have autonomous power, rather their power derives from the acceptance of their social incubator in a political context that this incubator allows to play a role in correcting the balances of power, as a tool or revenge, pressure, influence, or the like.

This article discusses Moroccan-African relations in light of the recent visit undertaken by the Moroccan king to Mali, Ivory Coast, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, and how this differed from previous visits. The visit led to the signing of a number of strategic agreements with the above-mentioned states. In this context, the study looks at the historical constants that have governed relations between Morocco and West and Sub Saharan Africa. The paper also looks at the political, economic, and religious variables of the two sides using inference, analysis, comparison, and interpretation. What is the nature of the historical relationship between Morocco and the West African states? What are the variables that have contributed to the more intensive Moroccan presence in the region? What new elements have been added by Moroccan political, economic, and security initiatives? What are the difficulties that might impede Moroccan ambitions on the African continent? These issues are dealt with in the paper.

This paper analyses the extent to which a “New Era” of the Turkish Republic is possible following the election of former Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the presidency on August 10. Erdogan is the twelfth individual to hold the office of President since the foundation of the Republic of Turkey in 1923. Having won the presidency following a prolonged period as prime minister, Erdogan has become the single most influential individual in Turkish politics since Mustafa Kemal. Given Erdogan’s current ambitions to bring about major constitutional change in Turkey, his election to the presidency can be seen as ushering in a new era for the Turkish Republic.

Since the time of President Thomas Jefferson, and on through the presidents of the 20th century, the United States has talked about itself as the propagator, protector, and defender of democracy around the world. Yet America has never showed any qualms of forming military and political alliances with authoritarian regimes in Latin America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The US justifies these international alliances on the basis that “not all dictatorships in the world are enemies of the United States, but all the United States’ enemies are dictatorships.” The US therefore adopted a two-track diplomacy: while working to spread democracy (directly or by means of international organizations and NGOs) the US has no issue in supporting autocratic governments when its interests are involved. How did US policy apply to the democratic transformation in the former Eastern bloc states in Europe on the eve of the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and subsequently, when American values and interests went hand in hand, and how did it then apply to the Arab Spring of 2011, when US values and interests were congruent in some cases and out of sync in others, according to the situation in each country and its strategic importance from America’s perspective? What are the results of these policies and what differences emerge from such a comparison of the Arab and East Europe cases.

Many American observers agree that the recent Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip represented a major challenge for the administration of President Barack Obama because it aggravated the international crises facing American foreign policy and shed light once again on the subject of the decline of American leadership. This paper discusses the decline in the capabilities of the American presidency under Obama and sheds light on the failure of the United States to deal, as it should have, with the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, which was unprecedented in size, destruction, and duration. The paper gives particular focus on the increasing inability of the United States to confront Israeli intransigence.

Book Title: Turkey and Russia: From the Tradition of the Past to the Horizons of the Future [Arabic]

Held by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies on June 2, 2014, this special one-day symposium examines the crisis in the Ukraine caused by Russian annexation of the Crimea, and the repercussions of this crisis on the Arab region.