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​Five years prior, the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies brought together a group of young activists whose dedication and courage gave ris eto what would become the Arab Spring. The group of activists, gathered again in Doha on January 15-16, 2016, appeared to have been completely changed by the intervening months. With the initial ecstasy of the fall of tyrants across the region now faded, the young revolutionary activists had matured ideologically and politically. It was a maturity born of suffering and setbacks, and revealed a realism towards the coming battle for freedom. One unchanging fact was their continued hope for freedom, and their belief in its possibility.

Examining the path of the Libyan revolution from its beginning in February 17, 2011 until today, this paper goes on to forecast the challenges that Libya will likely face in the future. It examines possible scenarios of the political future of Libya. In this context, the paper focusses on the transitional stage in Libya as the transitional national council set it in the constitutional declaration on August 3, 2011. It does this in order to show the most prominent obstacles that the revolution faced and the eternal instability that the political scene in Libya has witnessed since the fall of the last regime. More broadly, this paper studies the new political map in Libya and the main actors after the fall of Gadhafi.

The paper investigates and analyzes the regional and international interactions with the conflict in Libya, focusing on the period following the December 2015 political agreement in Skhirat, Morocco. The paper argues that this agreement is the result of a limited consensus among domestic and regional forces. These forces have moulded their foreign policies, over the course of the conflict, based on a balance between concerns over the political and economic effects of the Libyan democratic transition and their interests and ambitions for greater control and influence. The conflict of interests between the external forces was a substantial factor along with other internal determinants that have contributed to obstructing the democratic transition process. Therefore, this paper explores a series of research questions, mainly focusing on the role and behavior of the influential external forces in Libya's domestic politics.

Book Title: Syria’s Via Dolorosa to Freedom: An Attempt at Contemporary History [Arabic]

​This study is about the state-building impasse in the Arab World in General, and in Libya in particular. These states have suffered, since the beginning of the Arab Spring, from lack of political prospects, eruptions of civil wars, and obstacles of political settlements among different actors in the public space. These elements have inhibited the achievement of state building, the formation of a pluralist political system and the realization of an integrated national identity. This study endeavors to analyze the obstacles that have obstructed state-building in Libya until now. It focuses on tribalism and regionalism as main obstacles to that process. In addition, it analyzes the role of external factors and actors in the light of tribalism and regionalism. It argues that state-building in Libya has stumbled and has not followed a gradual path of modern state-building and formation, and it has not gone through the necessary stages of political transition. The former has trapped Libya within narrow loyalties which are short of the wider loyalties necessary for the national state.

This paper examines the 2012 General National Congress (GNC) elections in Libya, analyzing their implications and the interpretations that framed them as a victory for the liberal bloc (the National Forces Alliance) over the Islamist faction (the Justice and Construction Party and its allies). The paper reveals that this interpretation lacks accuracy, highlighting that a significant number of winning independent candidates were affiliated with Islamist movements. It also argues that Islamists later succeeded in consolidating their control within the GNC, leveraging their alliances to pass laws that excluded their political opponents. These elections marked a turning point in Libya after the overthrow of Gaddafi, representing the country's first democratic experiment in building a new political system despite the challenges inherited from the previous era. The paper examines the electoral system, key competitors, election results, and internal conflicts within the GNC, concluding that Islamist dominance after 2012 challenges the idea of a liberal victory.

Transitional justice in Libya is the key to stability of state and society. Under the previous regime, many Libyans' rights were violated. The regime's collapse only exacerbated these violations, in addition to bringing about the country's social and cultural disintegration. The very exceptional nature of the Libyan state complicated efforts to establish a transitional justice system in post-revolution Libya. Successive governments since the revolution have failed to exercise control over security. This paper deals with transitional justice in three sections. The first reviews Libyan legislation since the 17 February 2011 revolution. The second analyzes reasons for the failure of legislative efforts to implement an integrated program of transitional justice. The third outlines short- and medium-term requirements for implementing a transitional justice program.

Book Title: The Virtual Public Sphere in the Syrian Revolution [Arabic]

In association with the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut, the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies held a three-day conference (January 21-23, 2016) to study the developments associated with the Arab Spring in the intervening five years.

This study tries to demonstrate that the removal of the Gadhafi regime created new symbolic and political boundaries in Libya that go beyond the simplistic divide between those for the revolution and those against. These boundaries took on the guise of purity and impurity, honor and dishonor. They were also skillfully employed in the complex conflict for power that developed on the heels of the transition to the post-Gadhafi state. The author argues that the Gadhafi regime was highly personality based, and therefore the state also collapsed when the center collapsed. This fact left a set of local powerbrokers in its wake – from militias and revolutionary brigades to local councils, tribes, and local leaders, among them people with Islamist leanings, all of whom are competing for power and influence. The creation of these symbolic boundaries and their objective embodiment in the real world is likely to hinder the efforts of Libya to transform itself into a functioning and viable state.