ISIL is the legitimate child of the crisis of the political regime that developed in Iraq after 2003. The eight-year rule of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki instituted a monopoly
ACRPS has published issue 16 of the bi-monthly peer-reviewed academic journal Siyasat Arabia, a journal devoted to political science and international relations. This issue has two main themes: the war against ISIL and the Iranian nuclear program. The following studies and papers are included: “The War against ISIL a Year after the Formation of the International Coalition: The Case of Iraq” (Haydar Said); “The War Against ISIL a Year after the Formation of the International Coalition: the Case of Syria” (Hamzeh al-Mustafa); “American Policy towards ISIL” (Harith Hasan); “Directions for Reforming the Security Sector in Transitional Arab Regimes” (Ihsan al-Hafizi); “Algeria in the Reports on the Millennium Development Goals: a Study of Social Policy and Goals and their Course” (Youcef Zedam); “Where is Turkey Heading: Consolidation of Democracy or of Dictatorship?” (Mohammed Mahmoud Mahdi); “The Iranian Nuclear Agreement: Implications and Prospective Effect” (Mohammed al-Rumaihi); “Implications of the Iranian Nuclear Agreement: the Iranian View” (Mohammad Reza Fartousi ); “The Agreement with Iran and its Effects in the Region and for Israel and Palestine” (Yusuf Munir); “Trends in Arab Public Opinion on the Iranian Nuclear Agreement” (Mohammed al-Masri); “The Choice of Seeking Refuge in Europe and its Implications for the Crisis in Syria” (Policy Analysis Unit, ACRPS); and “The Moroccan Local Elections: Tracks of Competition and their Reflection on the General Political Scene” (Policy Analysis Unit). A new section has been added to this issue, “Translated Studies” which includes a translation of Anthony Cordesman’s “Iraqi Stability and the ‘ISIS War’”.The book review and notices sections includes: Ibrahim Gharayba’s review of “The Untold Story” by former Syrian foreign minister Farouk al-Sharaa; Elnour Hamad’s review of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terrorby Michael Weiss & Hassan Hassan; and Abdel-Rahman al-Siraj’s review of Abdullah Gul and the Making of the New Turkey by Gerald MacLean. The journal also covers the most important milestones of democratic transformation in the Arab world and events in Palestine during July and August 2015.
The opinions expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the positions held by the "Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies," the "Doha Institute for Graduate Studies," or the journal "Siyasat Arabiya."
Studies and Analytical Papers
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The War against ISIL a Year on from the Formation of the “International Coalition”: The Case of Syria
2015-09-01
One year has passed since the start of coalition air strikes against ISIL in Syria. Over that year ISIL has endured setbacks and defeats in a number of areas, perhaps the most important of which are Ain al-Arab (Kobani) and Hasaka. However, it succeeded in expanding its influence and incorporated new towns and villages such as Tadmur, the eastern Rif Homs, northern Rif Aleppo, Qalamon, and the Yarmouk refugee camp in the capital into its “state”. In this way it cut up the majority of Syrian territory and threatened strategic centers and urban areas such as Homs and the capital Damascus. The paper concludes that ISIL is imposing the rhythm and variables of battle in various parts of Syria. The international coalition remains unable to eliminate it or degrade it in the short or medium term. Eliminating ISIL may take years if the piecemeal US approach to confronting it continues as now.
In September 2014, US President Barack Obama announced a “comprehensive strategy” to degrade and destroy ISIL. Obama stated, “I will not hesitate to take action against ISIL in Syria, as well as Iraq. This is a core principle of my presidency: If you threaten America, you will find no safe haven.” But despite this announcement, questions over the nature, goals, and instruments of US policy towards ISIL still continue to be asked in the context of a debate between those who think that the US is not doing enough to take on ISIL and those who think it would be better for the US not to expand its military involvement in the conflict. This debate has been influenced by internal American political polarizations in the form of the critical position taken by leading Republicans such as Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, who view the Obama policy as weak, and Middle Eastern regional rivalries over the position towards ISIL and the nature of the political choices that must frame the confrontation with it.
This article poses the question of reform of the security sector in the period of Arab democratic transition by looking at the terms of reference for reform, the intersection between security policies and the political regime, and the enabling factors for security reform within an Arab context. The fundamental question facing Arab states concerns how to couple security and freedom and security and rights and justice. That is, how can the security agencies carry out their job without impinging on fundamental individual rights and freedoms? How can the state guarantee security and defend liberties at the same time? The article takes the view that security sector reform is part of the political transition process in Arab countries. Because the security establishment was a means to strengthen the regime and endorse its authoritarianism, any democratic transition aspiring to overcome the elements of the crisis must take into account the need to review the security sector.
This study compares the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with the outcomes of development policies in Algeria, in particular those related to employment, social protection, education, and health, since 1990 until the latest year for which data are available. These are outcomes of the policies laid down within the eight MDGs, among them: ending extreme poverty, universal elementary education, reduction of infant mortality, and improving maternal health. The study attempts to answer a central question: how far have the outcomes of development policies met the MDGs? In its answer, the paper includes an explanation of the contents of the MDGs and follows their historical progress, and details the goals, objectives, and indexes. The study also deals with the only Algerian MDG report, which appeared in 2005, to clarify the course of policies directly linked with the fight against extreme poverty and hunger, education, and infant and maternal health. The study concludes that Algeria was able to achieve the first, second, and fourth goal, but failed to meet the fifth goal (maternal deaths in childbirth) while expressing reservations about the funding for development policies and justice, and the implementation mechanisms for some policies.
This study attempts to understand the concepts of democratic consolidation and of dictatorship, and explains which is closer to coming about in the Turkish state after the experience of the past sixty years. Despite the reforms undertaken by the AKP since it came to power in 2002 that aimed to curtail the constitutional and legal pretexts allowing the military to intervene in political life, there have been notable changes in the Turkish scene, especially in 2013 and 2014. It has been implied that Turkey is on course to consolidate dictatorship, and this makes the third and final phase of democratization in Turkey subject to very different assessments. On this basis, the study attempts to answer a key question: where is Turkey heading, towards democratic consolidation or towards dictatorship?
This paper discusses the implications of the Iranian nuclear agreement inside Iran which is experiencing an ongoing battle between moderates and conservatives. It also observes and analyzes the responses within the Gulf states, which is the Arab bloc geographically closest to Iran and the most involved with it and fearful of it. The agreement restrains the Iranian Republic more than it gives it free rein, as it places Iran under international monitoring. The kind of sanctions that can be imposed on Iran in future, if it violates any or all of the provisions of the agreement are a factor controlling Iran’s future course. Alternatively, from what has come to light, it is clear that the marathon negotiations were not limited to the nuclear agreement, as both sides wish to portray. Rather other issues were discussed, including Iran’s future role in the region and the world. The acceleration of action on Syria and Yemen may be a reflection of these other issues.
Iran, over the past four decades, lived through a state of continuous alert to defend itself against the threats surrounding it and targeting its national security. Over that period, Iran did not enjoy clear recognition of its legitimacy from the major powers, the United States in particular. This created ongoing anxiety and restricted Iran’s efforts of “preserving the regime”, which Ayatollah Khomeini made the highest duty. These circumstances had tangible effects on Iranian national security and its strategy. The article sees that the nuclear agreement might be the beginning of a new phase. Via the agreement, Iran feels it has gained the recognition of the international community, and acknowledgement of its demand for legitimacy. Most importantly for Iran, the agreement shifts it away from the obsession with security and stability, and encourages it to bring out the features of the “Iranian model” in the region. The paper also discusses the fears of neighboring states and Iran’s efforts to reassure them. The positions of the political currents and the power centers in Iran are also considered as well as their differences over the pluses and minuses of the agreement.
This article discusses the nuclear program agreement reached between the P5+1 group of nations and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The article sees the agreement as a historic achievement that may well have major effects in the region. The paper deals with the main features of the agreement and the circumstances that led to it, and enumerates its likely effects on the region and especially on the Palestine-Israel conflict, as well as Israel’s frustration with the Iranian nuclear program and its threats to strike it. The paper puts forth the possibility that the agreement will lead to positive results and cause stability in the region and lead to real improvement in Iranian-Gulf relations, particularly with Saudi Arabia, as well as resolve the problems of Shia minorities in some Gulf states.
Increasing numbers of Syrians have sought refuge in Europe in previous months. The United Nations estimates that by the end of 2015, the number of Syrian refugees to have arrived in Europe will have reached 850,000. Factors contributing to the accelerating pace of Syrians seeking refuge in Europe include the militarization of the Syrian revolution and the regime’s collective punishment of communities living outside of its control. The Assad regime’s indiscriminate shelling of the of civilians living in zones under opposition control and the opposition’s inability to administer those zones have exacerbated these processes.
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Municipal Elections in Morocco: Contested Issues and the Impact on the Wider Political Landscape
2015-09-01
This paper explores the Moroccan municipal elections held in September, 2015. The results of the elections give an indication of the strength of the Islamist Justice and Development Party which has dominated the government since their victory in the legislative elections of 2011.
Translated Studies
The war against ISIL is a critical US national security interest. It not only threatens to create a major center of terrorism and extremism in a critical part of the Middle East, and one that could spread to threaten the flow of energy exports and the global economy, but could become a major center of international terrorism. It is important to understand, however, that ISIL is only one cause of instability in the region, and only one of the threats caused by spreading sectarian and ethnic violence. Iraq is a key case in point. No defeat of ISIL can bring Iraq security or stability, or give it the unity and independent strength to resist pressure from Iran and threats based in Syria and Turkey. No military course of action can—by itself – create a stable regime and economy, and reduce tension between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites, and Arabs and Kurds, to workable levels. Like Syria, Libya, and Yemen, military action must be joined to political and economic action and the creation of some form of viable governance.
The Arab Index
This paper uses the findings of the 2015 Arab Opinion Index to gauge Arab public attitudes towards the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action”, the international agreement which brought to a close a world crisis over Iran’s nuclear program. The paper also explores Arab attitudes towards the possibility of Iranian non-compliance with the terms of the agreement as well as the possible transformation of Iran into a nuclear capable state. The findings reflect a sharp division within Arab public opinion: 43% of respondents expressed the belief that Iran would abide by the terms of the agreement, with 46% predicting that the country would not follow through with the terms of the multilateral treaty.
Documentation
This report highlights some of the major milestones of the Arab democratic transition. The countries covered include Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.
This report chronicles some of the most significant developments relating to the Arab-Israeli conflict
Book Reviews
Book Title: The Lost Narrative [Arabic] Author: Farouk Sharaa Edition: 1st Year of publication: 2015 Publisher: ACRPS, Doha/Beirut Pages: 495
Book Title: ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror [English] Author: Michael Weiss & Hassan Hassan Year of publication: 2015 Publisher: Regan Arts, New York Pages: 270 (medium format)
Book Title: Abdullah Gul and the Making of the New Turkey [English] Author: Gerald MacLean Year of publication: 2014 Publisher: One World - London Pages: 368 (large format)
