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This study analyses the dynamics of state fragility in Arab countries from 2006–2024 using the Fragile States Index (FSI, Fund for Peace) and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI). The findings indicate that state fragility in the Arab world is complex and multidimensional, influenced by domestic structural factors, as well as internal and external shocks. Despite an overall increase in fragility, variations were observed among countries; Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine experienced significant increases, while the Gulf countries remained stable, and Iraq and Morocco showed relative improvement. Based on inflection points in the regional FSI series, the study divides the dynamics of fragility into four phases: relative stability (2006-2011), rising fragility (2012-2016), stability at high fragility levels (2017-2020), and slight improvement in indicators (2021-2024). The findings indicate that higher poverty, malnutrition, and low education exacerbate fragility, whereas improvements in GDP per capita, education, health, and economic openness help reduce it. The study highlights that addressing fragility requires long-term policies focused on enhancing governance, social justice, economic diversification, and human development to build more resilient Arab societies in the face of crises.

ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺶ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ا دﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﻃﺮ ﻣﻔﻬﻮم اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺪول اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺮﺣًﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ، ﺑﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺒﻨﻴﻮﻳﺔ وأﺑﻌﺎدﻫﺎ. وأوﺿﺤﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة ا ﻛﺎدﻳﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ أدﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﻠﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، وﻧﺎﻗﺸﺖ إن ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر ﺗ ﻌﺪّ رﻳﻌًﺎ أو ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻋﺘﻴﺎدﻳﺔ. وأﻃﺮت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺎءً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺸﺌﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ أﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﺎﻧﺤﻴﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ اﻟﺪاﻋﻤﺔ ﻟÝﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻲ، وأﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﻘﺎﺻّﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴًﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ ﺧﺰﻳﻨﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺐ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ. وأﺧﻴﺮًا، اﻗﺘﺮﺣﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ، ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﺎﻟ ﺎ. وﺗﻘﺘﺮح اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻴﻮﺑﺘﺮوﻣﻨﻴﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻧﺔ؛ رﻛﻮد ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ داﺧﻠﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﻧﺸﺎط ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ، وﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﺮوﺿﺔ ﺧﺎرﺟﻴًﺎ، وﻧﻈﺎم ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻲ ﻫﺶ، واﻧﻌﺪام اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ، واﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﺘﻤﺤﻮر ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻳﻊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟًﺎ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، اﻟﺪﻋﻢ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ، ﻓﻠﺴﻄﻴﻦ. Tis study is a theoretical and practical precedence in conceptualizing a rentier state in Palestine. It sets the possibility for understanding the underlying principles of the performance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) since its inception in 1994. It provides a platform for utilizing rentier state theory (RST) in a non-carbon state as a framework for analysing its political economy. More profoundly, it attempts to utilize RST in understanding the sate society relation under the complex political structural reality in Palestine. Firstly, the study makes the case for the gap in literature with regards to non-carbon based rentier states. It does so by providing a short history of literature and an overview of the sub-literature that followed with regards to conditional and specialized theories on the rentier state. Secondly, it elaborates on the PA's sources of income and debates whether they are rents. It categorizes rents in the Palestinian case to include international donations to the PA, and Israeli processed and controlled clearance taxes. Both sources amount to over 70% of the PA's expenditure. Tirdly, it proposes five characteristics that exemplify the non-carbon rentier state. It proposes that flexible neopatrimonialism, external imposed economic policy, active foreign policy contrasted by inactive internal policy, fragile tax collection system and unreliable financial flows, and rentier based economy best describe the non-carbon rentier state using the PA as an example.

ﺗﺘﻨﺎول ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺒُﻌﺪ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮي ﻓﻲ اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ، ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﺴﻠﻴﻂ اﻟﻀﻮء ﻋﻠﻰ ا دوار اﻟﺘﻲ اﺿﻄﻠﻌﺖ ﺑﻬﺎ اﻟﻘﻮات اﻟﻤﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪول اﻟﺘﻲ اﺟﺘﺎﺣﺘﻬﺎ رﻳﺎح اﻟﺜﻮرات؛ إذ ﻧﻠﺤَﻆ أن اﻟﺠﻤﺎﻫﻴﺮ اﻟﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﺠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ اﺻﻄﻔﺖ إﻟﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻬﺎ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻘﻮات ﻧﺠﺤﺖ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻠﻮغ ﻣﺮادﻫﺎ، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻊ اﻟﺸﻌﻮب اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻢ ﺗﺪﻋﻤﻬﺎ اﻟﺠﻴﻮش اﻟﺼﻤﻮد ﻓﻲ وﺟﻪ ﻗﻤﻊ اﻟﻘﻮات اﻟﻨﻈﺎﻣﻴﺔ. إن ا دوار اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ أﺧﺬت اﻟﺠﻴﻮش اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺗﺆدﻳﻬﺎ اﻟﻴﻮم ﻻ ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺠﻴﻮش وأﻫﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ وﺣﺴْ ﺐ، وﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺤﺚ أﻳﻀ ﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺻﻼح اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺒﻠﺪان. وﻗﺪ أﺧﺬ ﺳﺆال إﺻﻼح ﻗﻄﺎع اﻣﻦ واﻟﺪﻓﺎع ﻳﺒﺮز ﺑﻘﻮة ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ، ﺗﺠﺎوﺑًﺎ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﺘﻀﻴﻪ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺔ. وﻓﻲ ﻫﺬا اﻃﺎر، ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺠﻮاﻧﺐ اﻟﺒﻨﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺻﻼح اﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻣﻨﻲ واﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮي ﻓﻲ دول اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺠﻴﻮش اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، إﺻﻼح ﻗﻄﺎع اﻣﻦ، اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ. This paper explores the military aspect of the Arab Spring, and specifically the role played by formal armies in the Arab Spring states. Specifically, this paper focuses on the fact that popular revolutions during the Arab Spring were successful in those countries in which the military sided with the protestors, whereas revolutionary momentum could not face down the regimes in those countries where the armies did not side with the revolution. The political functions which Arab armies carry out serve to highlight not only their significance and effectiveness as institutions, but also the need for military reform. The question of military and security sector reform has become increasingly pressing in the post-Arab Spring transitional phase, driving the author to probe the structural aspects of reform to the military and security sectors of the Arab Spring states.

​This report highlights some of the major milestones of the Arab democratic transition. The countries covered include Tunisia, Egypt, Libya,Syria and Yemen.

The literature on state capacity is often at odds with what constitutes state capacity, how to operationalize it, and how to measure it. Nevertheless, it is important for us to attempt this endeavor given the importance of state capacity, and its effect on a number of political and social dynamics. With the proliferation of quality surveys in the Arab world in recent years, we also have an unprecedented opportunity to examine state capacity in a new light, according to citizen perceptions in addition to material measures. Thus, in this paper I will examine variations of state capacity measurements using the Arab Opinion Index data. I will provide evidence to show that many political phenomena can only be understood if the conditions surrounding state capacity are accounted for.

​This paper discusses international competition in Latin America between the United States, Russia, and China. Whilst the United States aims to maintain its traditional influence in the region based on the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which made Latin America a zone of exclusive influence for the US due to its geographic and economic significance. Russia and China instead seek to challenge this influence, on the one hand in the face of American expansionism in their respective vicinities, and on the other to bring about a multipolar global order. Moreover, the region is of economic importance to those states. The study arrives at the basic conclusion that the US still has the greatest military and economic presence in Latin America, but Russia and China have managed to penetrate the region by establishing military relations with anti-US regimes, most prominently Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. Moreover, China has become an important trade partner to countries such as Brazil and Argentina, surpassed the US in trade volume with these states.

​What is the effect of religiosity on public opinion? Islamist religiosity in particular has been linked to a variety of outcomes, including authoritarianism and violence. Nevertheless, many scholars have countered that there is in fact no relationship between religiosity in the Arab world and adverse political outcomes. Thus the debate remains unresolved to some degree. To adjudicate this debate, we use the Arab Opinion Index's 2016 data to examine the effect of individual religiosity on public opinion and political behavior. We find that there is no link between increased religiosity and negative views of democracy; in fact, the opposite is the case. There is also no link between religiosity and political participation. Finally, there is a positive correlation between religiosity and political tolerance.

​Milestones in Democratic Transition in the Arab World

​​This report documents the key milestones of democratic transitions in the Arab world from March 1 to April 30, 2024.

​The study argues that Turkey's foreign policy has undergone a transformation, specifically towards the Arab region, since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. This transformation has taken many shapes over several periods of time, which means that these shifts may be read differently according to influencing factors and theories. It argues that the realist school is the theory most appropriate to explain this transformation, especially since 2016; Neoclassical realism takes into account the internal and external factors that affect the formulation of foreign policy, and is able to analyse political decisions with rational logic.