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The Unravelling: High Hopes and Missed Opportunities in Iraq

Despite the state attracting considerable attention as a topic of study from Arab thinkers and intellectuals since the 19th century, the study of individual-level orientations toward the state using survey data has remained relatively marginal, both in English and in Arabic scholarship. Indeed, we still do not know much about Arab citizens' positions toward many of the debates that have long been present in Arab intellectual circles regarding the ontological nature of the so-called "Arab state" and the preferable ideological form it should take. This study seeks to fill this gap by focusing on the post-2011 period. It analyses how Arab citizens understand the state, the extent to which they distinguish it from the ruling regime, their orientations toward the ideological debate around the unified Arab state versus the nation-state, as well as around the religious Islamist state versus the civil state. It also examines the individual-level determinants of these orientations.

This study analyses the dynamics of state fragility in Arab countries from 2006–2024 using the Fragile States Index (FSI, Fund for Peace) and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI). The findings indicate that state fragility in the Arab world is complex and multidimensional, influenced by domestic structural factors, as well as internal and external shocks. Despite an overall increase in fragility, variations were observed among countries; Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine experienced significant increases, while the Gulf countries remained stable, and Iraq and Morocco showed relative improvement. Based on inflection points in the regional FSI series, the study divides the dynamics of fragility into four phases: relative stability (2006-2011), rising fragility (2012-2016), stability at high fragility levels (2017-2020), and slight improvement in indicators (2021-2024). The findings indicate that higher poverty, malnutrition, and low education exacerbate fragility, whereas improvements in GDP per capita, education, health, and economic openness help reduce it. The study highlights that addressing fragility requires long-term policies focused on enhancing governance, social justice, economic diversification, and human development to build more resilient Arab societies in the face of crises.

ﺗﺮﺻﺪ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎت اﻟﺮأي اﻟﻌﺎم اﻟﺴﻌﻮدي ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻀﻴﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ وﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ اﻻﻋﺘﺮاف ﺑﺈﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ، اﺳﺘﻨﺎدا إﻟﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺎم 2016. وﺗﺄﺗﻲ أﻫﻤﻴﺔ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮء اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺸﻬﺪﻫﺎ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ وﺻﻮل دوﻧﺎﻟﺪ ﺗﺮاﻣﺐ إﻟﻰ ﺳﺪة اﻟﺮﺋﺎﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة اÇﻣﻴﺮﻛﻴﺔ؛ إذ أﺑﺮزت اﻻﺻﻄﻔﺎﻓﺎت اÅ ﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪة ﻣﻴﻠ ﺎ ﻟﺪى ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺪول اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ اÇﻋﺪاء واﻟﺤﻠﻔﺎء، وﻇﻬﺮت أﺻﻮات ﻋﺪة ﺗﻨﺎدي ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﻣﻊ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﻤﺒﺮر اﻟﺘﻼﻗﻲ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪاء إﻳﺮان، أو ﺣﺮﻛﺎت اÅﺳﻼم اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ وﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺎوﻣﺔ اÅﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺣﻤﺎس. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺮأي اﻟﻌﺎم، اﻟﺴﻌﻮدﻳﺔ، إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ، ﺣﻤﺎس Tis paper relies on findings from the 2016 Arab Opinion Index to chart Saudi public attitudes towards a number of issues related to the Palestinian Cause, and specifically how Saudis feel about a potential normalization of diplomatic relations between their country and Israel. Tis latter question has added urgency in the present-day climate in the Arab world, with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House underscoring increasing demands within a number of Arab states for a normalization of ties with Israel, which some see as a natural ally against Iran or political Islamist groups, including the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).

An agreement signed by the Russian Foreign Minister and his US counterpart in Moscow has taken observers by surprise due to its timing and the surrounding circumstances. The agreement in Moscow was the natural culmination of a series of events impacting the situation in Syria, including changes to the composition of Barack Obama’s Administration and an overall shift in American attitudes towards the Arab Spring. This has presaged a change in American vision towards its interests in the wider Middle East region and Washington’s relations with both regional powers and global players with influence on the Syrian conflict. Finally, the agreement can be regarded as an expression of American uncertainty, as well as the Obama Administration’s inability to formulate a coherent policy towards Syria two years into the revolution.

ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ أﺣﺪ ﺟﻮاﻧﺐ ﻋﻘﺪة ﻛﺮﻛﻮك اﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﺎ ﻓﺘﺌﺖ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺳﻘﻮط اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ، وذﻟﻚ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ اﻟﻤﺄزق اﻟﺬي آل إﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﺼﻴﺮ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻛﺮﻛﻮك، ﻣﻨﺬ أول ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ اﻗﺘﺮاع ﻟﻤﺠﻠﺲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 2005. وﺗﺘﺘﺒّﻊ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ ﻣﺴﺎر اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻت اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻮﻏﺮاﻓﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ، وﻣﺎ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﺮات ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﺘﻬﺎ اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﻗﻴﺔ، ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺳﺘﻨﻄﺎق ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﺮه اﻟﺘﻌﺪادات واﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮات اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ أﺟﺮﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺲ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻋﺎم 1921. وﺗﺮﻣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ذﻟﻚ إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﻄﻼع ﻛﻴﻒ أﻧﺘﺠﺖ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻت وأﺟﺠﺖ ﺧﻼﻓﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻄﻮط ﺗﻤﺎس ﻋﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﺣﻮل ﺣﻖ اﻻﻗﺘﺮاع ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ؛ أدت إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﻛﺮﻛﻮك ﻣﻦ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺠﺎﻟﺲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺮاق ﻟﺪورﺗﻴﻦ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﻴﺘﻴﻦ إﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ا¤ ن، 2009 و 2013. وﺗﻨﺒﺮي اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﺼﻮرة اﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺨﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﺐ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ إﺑﺎن ﺣﻜﻢ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ، ﻗﺒﻞ أن ﺗﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﻰ رﺳﻢ ﺻﻮرة اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﺮدﻳﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎم 2003. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: ﻛﺮﻛﻮك، اﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻮﻏﺮاﻓﻲ، اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎزع ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ. Tis paper investigates the crisis in which provincial elections in Kirkuk has been enmeshed since the first provincial polls in post-Saddam Iraq held in 2005. It plots the trajectory of ethnic demographic changes in Kirkuk since the formation of the modern Iraqi state in 1921 and probes how these transformations inflamed discord along ethnic fault lines leading to excluding Kirkuk from two provincial elections, 2009 and 2013, till now. Tracing the intensification of the Kirkuk crisis against the backdrop of the failure of constitutional and legal solutions designed to resolve the so-called "disputed internal boundaries" problem, the paper analyzes the election results and demographic data in Kirkuk to shed light on the deepening electoral crisis in the province. It concludes by making recommendations aimed at reforming electoral registration in Kirkuk.

The 2016 Arab Opinion Index is the fifth in a series of yearly public opinion surveys across the Arab world. The first survey was conducted in 2011, with following surveys in 2012/2013 and 2014. The 2016 Arab Opinion Index is based on face-to-face interviews conducted with 18,310 individual respondents in 12 separate Arab countries: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Sudan, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania. Sampling followed a randomized, stratified, multi-stage, self-weighted clustered approach, giving an overall margin of error between +/- 2 % and 3% for the individual country samples. The overall samples guarantee probability-proportional-to-size (PPS), ensuring fairness in the representation of various population segments. With an aggregate sample size of 18,310 respondents (50% of whom were men and 50% women). The Arab Opinion Index remains the largest public opinion survey covering the Middle East and North Africa. The fieldwork was carried out by an overall team of 840 individuals (half of whom were women), who conducted 45,000 hours of face-to-face interviews, covering a total of 760,000 kilometers across the population clusters sampled.

Title (original): Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham's Road to Power in Syria.

This paper discusses the relationship between Egypt’s military and security institutions, on the one hand, and the forces of the revolutionary movement since January 25 2011, on the other. It evaluates this relationship by looking at how it evolved during Egypt’s revolutionary and post-revolutionary periods. It achieves this by breaking events down into three main phases: an initial transitional phase managed directly by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF); Mohamed Morsi’s presidency; and the revolutionary movement after Morsi’s ouster. Based on observations of the three main junctures, this paper carries out a detailed reading of the major events in each phase and analyzes the impact that each had when it came to shaping the relationship between the military and security institutions. The paper sees distinct characteristics of the relationship between these central institutions at each phase, and assesses the impact of these different moments on the political process in Egypt more generally

Consociationalism is a system of government recommended for ‘divided societies’. Starting with a discussion of its theoretical components and criticisms it has received, this article addresses how consociationalism has been implemented in in post - 2003 Iraq. The article asks whether the Iraqi constitution and institutions formed by it represented a successful case of consociationalism. Key consociational mechanisms such as an electoral system based on proportional representation, governments based on big multi - party coalitions and a federal and decentralized governance were adopted. However, this model was not entirely consociational as some practices that are common in the majoritarian government have also been used. In fact, divisions between majoritarian and consociational perspectives have polarized, and sometimes paralyzed, the political process. In light of this, the article discusses the sustainability of the current model and its likely future trajectories.