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ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ أﺣﺪ ﺟﻮاﻧﺐ ﻋﻘﺪة ﻛﺮﻛﻮك اﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﺎ ﻓﺘﺌﺖ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺳﻘﻮط اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ، وذﻟﻚ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ اﻟﻤﺄزق اﻟﺬي آل إﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﺼﻴﺮ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻛﺮﻛﻮك، ﻣﻨﺬ أول ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ اﻗﺘﺮاع ﻟﻤﺠﻠﺲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 2005. وﺗﺘﺘﺒّﻊ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ ﻣﺴﺎر اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻت اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻮﻏﺮاﻓﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ، وﻣﺎ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﺮات ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﺘﻬﺎ اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﻗﻴﺔ، ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺳﺘﻨﻄﺎق ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﺮه اﻟﺘﻌﺪادات واﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮات اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ أﺟﺮﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺲ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻋﺎم 1921. وﺗﺮﻣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ذﻟﻚ إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﻄﻼع ﻛﻴﻒ أﻧﺘﺠﺖ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻت وأﺟﺠﺖ ﺧﻼﻓﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻄﻮط ﺗﻤﺎس ﻋﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﺣﻮل ﺣﻖ اﻻﻗﺘﺮاع ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ؛ أدت إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﻛﺮﻛﻮك ﻣﻦ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺠﺎﻟﺲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺮاق ﻟﺪورﺗﻴﻦ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﻴﺘﻴﻦ إﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ا¤ ن، 2009 و 2013. وﺗﻨﺒﺮي اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﺼﻮرة اﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺨﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﺐ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ إﺑﺎن ﺣﻜﻢ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ، ﻗﺒﻞ أن ﺗﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﻰ رﺳﻢ ﺻﻮرة اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﺮدﻳﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎم 2003. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: ﻛﺮﻛﻮك، اﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻮﻏﺮاﻓﻲ، اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎزع ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ. Tis paper investigates the crisis in which provincial elections in Kirkuk has been enmeshed since the first provincial polls in post-Saddam Iraq held in 2005. It plots the trajectory of ethnic demographic changes in Kirkuk since the formation of the modern Iraqi state in 1921 and probes how these transformations inflamed discord along ethnic fault lines leading to excluding Kirkuk from two provincial elections, 2009 and 2013, till now. Tracing the intensification of the Kirkuk crisis against the backdrop of the failure of constitutional and legal solutions designed to resolve the so-called "disputed internal boundaries" problem, the paper analyzes the election results and demographic data in Kirkuk to shed light on the deepening electoral crisis in the province. It concludes by making recommendations aimed at reforming electoral registration in Kirkuk.

The fall of Mosul on June 10, 2014 following the assault by armed factions, with ISIL at the forefront, represented a major point of transformation for the political scene in Iraq, particularly following the withdrawal of the Iraqi military and police, and the succession of cities in northern and western Iraq that fell to ISIL. This paper looks at the accelerating developments in the Iraqi crisis since 2014. It tries to understand and describe the event, and presents two current narratives: the first is that ISIL is the only actor responsible for the planning and implementation of what happened and is happening; and the second observes the revival of the Sunni opposition movements in the context of the Anbar uprising against the Iraqi government. The paper reviews the positions of the forces active internally: the Iraqi government and its allies, the armed factions and their allies, and the Iraqi political forces participating in the political process, and externally in the region and on the global scene.

Victimization narratives compose a principle element in creating of sub-national identities in societies afflicted by divisions and communal disputes. Little wonder then that narratives of victimization abound in Kirkuk province, which lies at the heart of Iraq’s “disputed internal areas” problem. This paper starts of by analyzing the nature of victimization narratives and how they make use of the past to serve political projects spearheaded by political elites. It then turns to surveying and deconstructing the contending narratives propagated by communal elites in Kirkuk regarding the victimization, whether real or imagined, endured by the province’s demographic components – Kurds, Turkmens, Arabs and Christians. By analytically surveying the narratives of victimization of these four communities, this paper seeks to ascertain the workings of these narratives and to explicate the role they play.

This paper explores the difficulties of the city and governorate of Kirkuk, specifically the problems from its diverse composition. Kirkuk has been described as a “microcosm of Iraq”, in recognition of the ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious diversity in the region. This gives added impetus to finding a resolution to the difficulties of governance in the governorate-city: a solution to the problems in Kirkuk could have positive reverberations for the rest of Iraq.The governorate’s problems began in the wake of the discovery of oil there, with a gradual effort towards “Arabization” of the population there undertaken by the then-government of Saddam. This led to the formation of clear ethnic fault lines, which became clearer following the invasion of Iraq in 2003. At that point, Kirkuk became even more polarized, serving to further entrench the problems of governance in the region. Based on the existing literature on Kirkuk, on the Iraqi constitution and the experience of government in Iraq since 2003, this paper proposes consociational democracy as the preferred approach to resolving Kirkuk’s long-outstanding issues, including the disputes resulting from religious and ethnic differences typical of pluralist societies.

The paper studies the Iraqi-Syrian-Turkish conflict over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, from a geopolitical perspective. It argues that this conflict has historical and political roots, not solely tied to the natural availability of water in the Tigris and Euphrates, but rather connected to the policies of different parties in managing water resources. The paper includes three essential elements. The first examines the geographical and hydrological characteristics of the Tigris and Euphrates. The second explores the political and academic discourse in the 1990 s regarding the "water war" theory. The third and final element analysed the characteristics of the new conditions that have distinguished the three countries since the beginning of this century, imposing on Syria and Iraq the need to devise a new vision for managing their available water resources. The research concludes with the inevitability of negotiation for the joint management of the Tigris and Euphrates water resources as it is not in Turkey's interest to ignore the interests of downstream countries. Moreover, Syria and Iraq cannot achieve any results without negotiation and water diplomacy.

ﺗﺴﻠﻂ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﻟﻀﻮء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮاﻛﺰ اﻟﺒﺤﻮث واﻟﻤﻨﺎﺑﺮ اﻋﻼﻣﻴﺔ اﻣﻴﺮﻛﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻟ{ﻓﻜﺎر واﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎن ﻟﻬﺎ دور ﺣﺎﺳﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﻊ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻴﺔ، واﻟﻤﻨﺎخ اﻟﺬي أﺷﺎﻋﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ "ﻋﺎﻟﻢ ﺗﺮاﻣﺐ". وﺗﺒﻴﻦ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﻟﺴﻤﺎت ا ﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺬه اﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎل اﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ اﻣﻴﺮﻛﻲ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻨﺎول اﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻟﻔﻜﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺑﺎﺗﺖ ادارة اﻣﻴﺮﻛﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻠﻬﻢ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﻀ ﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻠﻘﺎﺗﻬﺎ اﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ إزاء اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ ﻣﻦ دوﻟﺔ ﻗﻄﺮ، ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﺟﺮى اﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ أﻧﻪ ﻣﺎ داﻣﺖ ﻗﻄﺮ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻲ دورﻫﺎ ﻣﺼﺪرًا ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻟﺠﻤﺎﻋﺎت ارﻫﺎﺑﻴﺔ واﻟﻤﺘﻄﺮﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮق اوﺳﻂ، وﺗﺠﻴّﺮ ﻗﻮﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻨﺎﻋﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﺳﻼم اﻟﺮادﻳﻜﺎﻟﻲ، ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻘﻮل ﻃﺮح اﻟﺴﺆال إن ﻛﺎن ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻴًﺎ اﺳﺘﻤﺮار إدارة دوﻧﺎﻟﺪ ﺗﺮاﻣﺐ ﻓﻲ "اﺳﺘﺌﺠﺎر أﺻﻮل" ﻣﻦ دوﻟﺔ ﺗﺆﻳﺪ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﺳﻼم. واﻟﻬﺪف، ﺑﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺤﺎﺟﺞ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ، ﻫﻮ أن ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻗﻄﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺠﻬﺮ، ﻣﻜﺒّﻠﺔ اﻟﻴﺪﻳﻦ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﺮك وﻓﺎﻗﺪة اﻟﻤﺒﺎدرة، وﻓﻲ اﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﺳﺎﻛﻦ ﺧﺎرج ﺣﻠﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺮح اﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: ﻗﻄﺮ، ﻣﺮاﻛﺰ اﻟﺒﺤﻮث اﻣﻴﺮﻛﻴﺔ، ازﻣﺔ اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ. This paper highlights US research centers and platforms producing ideas and literatures that have played a crucial role in shaping US foreign policy and the climate that has shaped it in the formation of the "Trump's World", and outlines the main features of these writings in influencing US foreign policy-making. Furthermore, the paper discusses the intellectual elements that the current US administration is drawing form some of its basic premises on the attitude towards Qatar. These writings emphasizes that as long as Qatar continues to play its role as a source of funding for terrorist and extremist groups in the Middle East, the question raises weather Tramp administration would continue to "lease assets" from a country that supported such a version of Islam, but the goal is to keep Qatar inactive and waiting outside the regional theater.

This study deals with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) as a non-state actor. It examines the internal environment in Turkey and the PKK's material strength before moving on to the external environment and the PKK's entry into an international conflict, focusing on historical development since the end of the Cold War. The paper argues that non-state actors contribute to international anarchy and conflict through competition with the state over the monopoly of power and the acquisition of territory, identity and resources. It also stipulates that the PKK benefited from the internal and external environmental variables contributing to international conflict. The study concludes that the entry of the PKK, which originated in Turkey, into an international conflict took place in several stages: the competition with the state for power; the influence of its foreign policy choices; the acquisition of new territories; and extra-territorial action.

​Events in Mosul, which was captured by ISIL on June 9, 2014, cannot be viewed in isolation from the severe political crisis afflicting the post 2003 Iraqi political regime. Generally speaking, radical groups cannot be separated from the political environment that fostered them. They are the product of a structurally imbalanced political situation. The growth of such groups in Iraq, from Al Qaeda to ISIL, provides a textbook lesson of this. They are the expression of an imbalance political situation, even if they develop and assume an independence from the political context that gave birth to them. They grow, develop, and draw oxygen from these imbalances and from sharp political and social divisions. Hence, it is not possible to defend the idea that these groups have autonomous power, rather their power derives from the acceptance of their social incubator in a political context that this incubator allows to play a role in correcting the balances of power, as a tool or revenge, pressure, influence, or the like.

In September 2014, US President Barack Obama announced a “comprehensive strategy” to degrade and destroy ISIL. Obama stated, “I will not hesitate to take action against ISIL in Syria, as well as Iraq. This is a core principle of my presidency: If you threaten America, you will find no safe haven.” But despite this announcement, questions over the nature, goals, and instruments of US policy towards ISIL still continue to be asked in the context of a debate between those who think that the US is not doing enough to take on ISIL and those who think it would be better for the US not to expand its military involvement in the conflict. This debate has been influenced by internal American political polarizations in the form of the critical position taken by leading Republicans such as Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, who view the Obama policy as weak, and Middle Eastern regional rivalries over the position towards ISIL and the nature of the political choices that must frame the confrontation with it.

Consociationalism is a system of government recommended for ‘divided societies’. Starting with a discussion of its theoretical components and criticisms it has received, this article addresses how consociationalism has been implemented in in post - 2003 Iraq. The article asks whether the Iraqi constitution and institutions formed by it represented a successful case of consociationalism. Key consociational mechanisms such as an electoral system based on proportional representation, governments based on big multi - party coalitions and a federal and decentralized governance were adopted. However, this model was not entirely consociational as some practices that are common in the majoritarian government have also been used. In fact, divisions between majoritarian and consociational perspectives have polarized, and sometimes paralyzed, the political process. In light of this, the article discusses the sustainability of the current model and its likely future trajectories.