Latest Articles

​In this section you will find the most important documents on democratic change in the Arab world. In this issue, we publish documents highlighting the political movement in Tunisia demanding democracy and look at the main political changes in Sudan, Iraq and Jordan in March and April 2022.

Scholarship explains impediments to democratic transition in Middle Eastern countries as forms of neopatrimonialism - a combination of patrimonial tradition and cosmetic electoral procedures. However, this approach conflates two spheres of governance: firstly, the government as a sphere of appointed or elected politicians, secondly, the state's bureaucracy as a sphere of administrative staff necessary for the government to execute its planned actions. The impediments Hamas governments (2006-2007) faced highlight the difference between the two spheres. Accordingly, I conceptually differentiate between two types of government: government in office and government in power. While the Hamas government was supposed to rule, the administrative personnel refused to comply. Thus, the elected government in office faced local-institutional and external constraints which prevented its functioning, and provoked power struggles that led to internecine war and the collapse of the electoral democracy.

Today, India is actively engaged in projecting its influence beyond its geographic proximity. It has a proactive policy based on national interests and driven by its growing needs, particularly for energy imports, and an ambition to achieve a position of global prominence. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is of great geopolitical importance to India's strategy because of its geographic proximity, the abundance of energy resources, the great financial assets, and as the place with the largest Indian immigrant community. Nevertheless, many regional contenders may challenge India's interests in the region. This article discusses the geopolitical and economic importance of the GCC states and their current position in India's strategy. It explores the driving forces behind novel strategic partnerships between them. It also analyses how third-party relations with the GCC states or India may affect their relationships, such as China, Pakistan, and Iran. It also focuses on the new containment policy of India and China and their geopolitical contest over the Gulf and the GCC's hydrocarbon and financial assets.

This study provides a discussion and analysis of the circumstances that led to the military occupation of the core of the state and government in contemporary Algeria, and the ramifications for the process of building political and legal institutions, and the democratic transition experience. The study employs the concepts of populism and neopatrimonialism to paint a picture of the path taken by the government in Algeria since independence. Populism describes the ideology that sanctified the one-party state and revolutionary legitimacy, while neopatrimonialism is the resulting shape taken by the exercise of political power. Framing these two concepts within their historical context provides an understanding of the circumstances of the army's seizure of power and its identification with the state. It clarifies the reasons for its refusal to redistribute power within the society after the establishment of political pluralism in the 1989 Constitution.

This study investigates the circumstances under which military governments leave power. It shows that there is no single path to get the military out of power, as there are no general rules for all cases. Nevertheless, several lessons are learned of which the most important is that military officers never relinquish power on their own. Rather, they are usually forced to leave it. In most cases, forcing the military to hand over authority requires a democratic opposition bloc that reaches a national consensus and agrees on a clear political strategy with an explicit goal. This will get the military out of power and establish a civilian government. A consensus or democratic bloc enables reformist democrats to change the balance of power for the benefit of democratic transition.

ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺶ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ا دﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﻃﺮ ﻣﻔﻬﻮم اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺪول اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺮﺣًﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ، ﺑﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺒﻨﻴﻮﻳﺔ وأﺑﻌﺎدﻫﺎ. وأوﺿﺤﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة ا ﻛﺎدﻳﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ أدﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﻠﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، وﻧﺎﻗﺸﺖ إن ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر ﺗ ﻌﺪّ رﻳﻌًﺎ أو ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻋﺘﻴﺎدﻳﺔ. وأﻃﺮت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺎءً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺸﺌﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ أﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﺎﻧﺤﻴﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ اﻟﺪاﻋﻤﺔ ﻟÝﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻲ، وأﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﻘﺎﺻّﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴًﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ ﺧﺰﻳﻨﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺐ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ. وأﺧﻴﺮًا، اﻗﺘﺮﺣﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ، ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﺎﻟ ﺎ. وﺗﻘﺘﺮح اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻴﻮﺑﺘﺮوﻣﻨﻴﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻧﺔ؛ رﻛﻮد ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ داﺧﻠﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﻧﺸﺎط ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ، وﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﺮوﺿﺔ ﺧﺎرﺟﻴًﺎ، وﻧﻈﺎم ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻲ ﻫﺶ، واﻧﻌﺪام اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ، واﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﺘﻤﺤﻮر ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻳﻊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟًﺎ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، اﻟﺪﻋﻢ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ، ﻓﻠﺴﻄﻴﻦ. Tis study is a theoretical and practical precedence in conceptualizing a rentier state in Palestine. It sets the possibility for understanding the underlying principles of the performance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) since its inception in 1994. It provides a platform for utilizing rentier state theory (RST) in a non-carbon state as a framework for analysing its political economy. More profoundly, it attempts to utilize RST in understanding the sate society relation under the complex political structural reality in Palestine. Firstly, the study makes the case for the gap in literature with regards to non-carbon based rentier states. It does so by providing a short history of literature and an overview of the sub-literature that followed with regards to conditional and specialized theories on the rentier state. Secondly, it elaborates on the PA's sources of income and debates whether they are rents. It categorizes rents in the Palestinian case to include international donations to the PA, and Israeli processed and controlled clearance taxes. Both sources amount to over 70% of the PA's expenditure. Tirdly, it proposes five characteristics that exemplify the non-carbon rentier state. It proposes that flexible neopatrimonialism, external imposed economic policy, active foreign policy contrasted by inactive internal policy, fragile tax collection system and unreliable financial flows, and rentier based economy best describe the non-carbon rentier state using the PA as an example.

​This study fits into a broad category of scholarship concerned with transitional periods in various political systems. Specifically, it examines the political transition in post-revolutionary Tunisia since 2011. It does so by comparing the legal provisions of the post-revolutionary transition - the major texts, which define the transitional stage - and the political realities, which take the shape of events, actions and political discourse. A point of particular focus is the 2011 elections to the National Constituent Assembly, which the author analyzes through the rubric of "electoral engineering". One more conclusion of the paper is that electoral engineering remains a feature of Tunisian politics, although it has gone from "authoritarian electoral engineering" to "democratic electoral engineering," reflecting changes which have taken in the country as a whole.

Civil society rests on the principle of economic independence from politics, deemed to be a long-standing precondition to limiting the despotism of a political authority and its ability to wreak havoc on society. The paper poses the question of why civil society has thus far failed to materialize in Algeria, despite the existence of political pluralism in the country dating to the 1989 Constitution. The author contends that the persistence of rentierism in the Algerian economy has enabled the country’s government to prevent the rise of a genuine civil society in Algeria, despite the de jure acceptance of political pluralism in the country. The government has been able to use the levers of a rentier economy to subdue the political elites and dominate society, effectively controlling the political fallout of economic liberalization. The paper goes on to survey the political economic context, which led to the failure of a democratic transition in Algeria, by exploring how private capital was unable to echo the catalyzing role played by the European bourgeoisie in the democratization and political modernization of their continent.

Eastern Sudan is in a critical stage, where local fault lines intersect with Horn of Africa tensions and regional and international ambitions. This study traces those fissures and their intersections in order to understand and analyze the conflict in the region. Its basic premise is that eastern Sudan represents the priority and geographical entry point in the Sudanese peace-building process, and that the establishment/strengthening of peace in this region is linked to a reciprocal relationship with the security and stability of the Horn of Africa. The study presents preliminary ideas, in terms of preventive diplomacy, that may contribute to healing the rifts. It is based on a combination of primary sources, literature, and personal interviews with Sudanese academics, diplomats and other actors. In addition, it builds on the outputs of two workshops from the Sudan Track II Peace Dialogue Project. It frames some aspects of the analysis and ideas presented with a set of theories and hypotheses that intersect with the field of conflict studies, following the "combined approach," for studying complex conflict environments.

This study addresses a longstanding and renewed subject in the case of Sudan: the continual interference of military formations and elites in political authority and the instability of post-independence civil governance. It uses a compound methodology blending a historical reading of political events and developments with a descriptive reading of the present reality, in its domestic and foreign dimensions, and a forecast of Sudan's future in light of the current situation. The study observes that the plurality of regional, ethnic, and military structures, instead of being a constructive and integrating aspect of the Sudanese state and nation, has reflected negatively on the country's unity and its political and security stability. Since independence, these formations have remained in confrontation, whether between one another or among the internal parts and divisions of each. Evidence for this claim is found in Sudan's complex crises, including that of governance, the South, Darfur, the current transitional period, and the struggle for power presently raging between military branches.