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This study analyses the dynamics of state fragility in Arab countries from 2006–2024 using the Fragile States Index (FSI, Fund for Peace) and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI). The findings indicate that state fragility in the Arab world is complex and multidimensional, influenced by domestic structural factors, as well as internal and external shocks. Despite an overall increase in fragility, variations were observed among countries; Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine experienced significant increases, while the Gulf countries remained stable, and Iraq and Morocco showed relative improvement. Based on inflection points in the regional FSI series, the study divides the dynamics of fragility into four phases: relative stability (2006-2011), rising fragility (2012-2016), stability at high fragility levels (2017-2020), and slight improvement in indicators (2021-2024). The findings indicate that higher poverty, malnutrition, and low education exacerbate fragility, whereas improvements in GDP per capita, education, health, and economic openness help reduce it. The study highlights that addressing fragility requires long-term policies focused on enhancing governance, social justice, economic diversification, and human development to build more resilient Arab societies in the face of crises.

​In this section you will find the most important documents on democratic change in the Arab world. In this issue, we publish documents highlighting the political movement in Tunisia demanding democracy and look at the main political changes in Sudan, Iraq and Jordan in March and April 2022.

This paper compares the results of the Fragile States Index issued by the Fund for Peace, a charitable organization, with indicators established in the Arab Opinion Index, an annual survey undertaken by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in a number of Arab countries. These indicators reflect the assessments provided by Arab respondents of economic, social and political issues and what their views mean in light of the specific country contexts. The paper also examines whether citizens' views can be relied upon as indicators of the vulnerability of the state and the extent to which the indicators of state vulnerability are accurate by comparing them with the opinions of citizens in different areas. In this context, based on the Arab Index survey, the paper relied on nine indicators out of 12 adopted by the Fragile States Index in order to interpret economic, social and political opinions expressed by respondents.

This article aims to explain and review the theoretical and normative contexts of Transitional Justice (TJ). This is done as empirical studies or specific settings particularly in the Arab region need to be rooted much more in TJ theory. The article argues that data and statistics need to be used and evaluated and that there needs to be greater use of methodological processes including empirical studies. It is argued that at present, this is not always the case. Similarly, when models are presented or critiqued by practitioners, little regard is given to TJ theory, or the context within which those models operated. Therefore, it is difficult to see what lessons can be learnt for other places even where the context or circumstances are very similar.

ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺶ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ا دﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﻃﺮ ﻣﻔﻬﻮم اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺪول اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺮﺣًﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ، ﺑﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺒﻨﻴﻮﻳﺔ وأﺑﻌﺎدﻫﺎ. وأوﺿﺤﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة ا ﻛﺎدﻳﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ أدﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﻠﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، وﻧﺎﻗﺸﺖ إن ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر ﺗ ﻌﺪّ رﻳﻌًﺎ أو ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻋﺘﻴﺎدﻳﺔ. وأﻃﺮت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺎءً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺸﺌﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ أﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﺎﻧﺤﻴﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ اﻟﺪاﻋﻤﺔ ﻟÝﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻲ، وأﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﻘﺎﺻّﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴًﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ ﺧﺰﻳﻨﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺐ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ. وأﺧﻴﺮًا، اﻗﺘﺮﺣﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ، ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﺎﻟ ﺎ. وﺗﻘﺘﺮح اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻴﻮﺑﺘﺮوﻣﻨﻴﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻧﺔ؛ رﻛﻮد ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ داﺧﻠﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﻧﺸﺎط ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ، وﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﺮوﺿﺔ ﺧﺎرﺟﻴًﺎ، وﻧﻈﺎم ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻲ ﻫﺶ، واﻧﻌﺪام اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ، واﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﺘﻤﺤﻮر ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻳﻊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟًﺎ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، اﻟﺪﻋﻢ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ، ﻓﻠﺴﻄﻴﻦ. Tis study is a theoretical and practical precedence in conceptualizing a rentier state in Palestine. It sets the possibility for understanding the underlying principles of the performance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) since its inception in 1994. It provides a platform for utilizing rentier state theory (RST) in a non-carbon state as a framework for analysing its political economy. More profoundly, it attempts to utilize RST in understanding the sate society relation under the complex political structural reality in Palestine. Firstly, the study makes the case for the gap in literature with regards to non-carbon based rentier states. It does so by providing a short history of literature and an overview of the sub-literature that followed with regards to conditional and specialized theories on the rentier state. Secondly, it elaborates on the PA's sources of income and debates whether they are rents. It categorizes rents in the Palestinian case to include international donations to the PA, and Israeli processed and controlled clearance taxes. Both sources amount to over 70% of the PA's expenditure. Tirdly, it proposes five characteristics that exemplify the non-carbon rentier state. It proposes that flexible neopatrimonialism, external imposed economic policy, active foreign policy contrasted by inactive internal policy, fragile tax collection system and unreliable financial flows, and rentier based economy best describe the non-carbon rentier state using the PA as an example.

This paper compares the results of the Fragile States Index issued by the Fund for Peace, a charitable organization, with indicators established in the Arab Opinion Index, an annual survey undertaken by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in a number of Arab countries. These indicators reflect the assessments provided by Arab respondents of economic, social and political issues and what their views mean in light of the specific country contexts. The paper also examines whether citizens' views can be relied upon as indicators of the vulnerability of the state and the extent to which the indicators of state vulnerability are accurate by comparing them with the opinions of citizens in different areas. In this context, based on the Arab Index survey, the paper relied on nine indicators out of 12 adopted by the Fragile States Index in order to interpret economic, social and political opinions expressed by respondents.

The paper investigates and analyzes the regional and international interactions with the conflict in Libya, focusing on the period following the December 2015 political agreement in Skhirat, Morocco. The paper argues that this agreement is the result of a limited consensus among domestic and regional forces. These forces have moulded their foreign policies, over the course of the conflict, based on a balance between concerns over the political and economic effects of the Libyan democratic transition and their interests and ambitions for greater control and influence. The conflict of interests between the external forces was a substantial factor along with other internal determinants that have contributed to obstructing the democratic transition process. Therefore, this paper explores a series of research questions, mainly focusing on the role and behavior of the influential external forces in Libya's domestic politics.

Eastern Sudan is in a critical stage, where local fault lines intersect with Horn of Africa tensions and regional and international ambitions. This study traces those fissures and their intersections in order to understand and analyze the conflict in the region. Its basic premise is that eastern Sudan represents the priority and geographical entry point in the Sudanese peace-building process, and that the establishment/strengthening of peace in this region is linked to a reciprocal relationship with the security and stability of the Horn of Africa. The study presents preliminary ideas, in terms of preventive diplomacy, that may contribute to healing the rifts. It is based on a combination of primary sources, literature, and personal interviews with Sudanese academics, diplomats and other actors. In addition, it builds on the outputs of two workshops from the Sudan Track II Peace Dialogue Project. It frames some aspects of the analysis and ideas presented with a set of theories and hypotheses that intersect with the field of conflict studies, following the "combined approach," for studying complex conflict environments.

This paper explores the difficulties of the city and governorate of Kirkuk, specifically the problems from its diverse composition. Kirkuk has been described as a “microcosm of Iraq”, in recognition of the ethnic, linguistic, cultural and religious diversity in the region. This gives added impetus to finding a resolution to the difficulties of governance in the governorate-city: a solution to the problems in Kirkuk could have positive reverberations for the rest of Iraq.The governorate’s problems began in the wake of the discovery of oil there, with a gradual effort towards “Arabization” of the population there undertaken by the then-government of Saddam. This led to the formation of clear ethnic fault lines, which became clearer following the invasion of Iraq in 2003. At that point, Kirkuk became even more polarized, serving to further entrench the problems of governance in the region. Based on the existing literature on Kirkuk, on the Iraqi constitution and the experience of government in Iraq since 2003, this paper proposes consociational democracy as the preferred approach to resolving Kirkuk’s long-outstanding issues, including the disputes resulting from religious and ethnic differences typical of pluralist societies.

Following the transformations in the Levant’s regional system since the beginning of World War II to the rise of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, this paper examines the new context of the region with regard to Washington’s resumption of direct military intervention. It finds that the Levant – as a soft area easily subject to geopolitical influences – has always been subject to changes based on shifts in world order, from the Cold War, followed by unipolarity, to the relative decline of US power. Thus, while the main actors of the Levant’s regional system were Arabs during the Cold War, the region has become a battleground for non-Arab parties – namely Turkey and Iran – following the invasion or Iraq and the eruption of the Arab Spring revolutions.