Issue 026

The June, 1967 War was a turning point in the modern history not only of Palestine and the Zionist state but also the wider region. The defeat of the Arab armies was a pivotal moment for the modern and contemporary histories of the Arab world, and has consequences which continue to reverberate today. That fact remains unchanged despite attempts by Arab governments to gloss over the severity of what happened during the war, first by employing the euphemism of Naksa (or "setback") to describe what happened and later to celebrate the fact that "progressive" Arab regimes were not toppled by the Israeli army. Despite the significance of these events, the Arabic academic literature continues to lack a serious analysis of the events of June, 1967, in stark contrast to the hundreds of academic works published by Israeli and western authors. This reality necessitates a rereading of the war, and the formulation of a new Arab narrative about it, which the author attempts in this paper.

China's economic growth led to a concomitant expansion of its interests across the globe, and the Middle East and North Africa s today vital to the sustainability of that growth.

ﺗﺪﻋﻲ اﻟﺮواﻳﺔ اÈ ﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﺮﺳﻤﻴﺔ أن ﺣﺮب ﺣﺰﻳﺮان/ ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ 1967 اﻧﺪﻟﻌﺖ ﻣﻦ دون أن ﺗﺮﻏﺐ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ وﻣﻦ دون أن ﺗﺨﻄﻂ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺳﻠﻔ ﺎ، وﻟﻜﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘﺔ واﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ اﻟﻜﺜﻴﺮة اﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎﺛﺮة ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺻﺪر ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺒﺮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺘﺐ وﻣﺬﻛﺮات ودراﺳﺎت ووﺛﺎﺋﻖ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴﺔ؛ ﺗﺮﺳﻢ ﺻﻮرة ﻣﻨﺎﻗﻀﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣًﺎ ﻟﻬﺬا اﻻدﻋﺎء. ﺗﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺻﻨﻊ ﻗﺮار ﺣﺮب ﺣﺰﻳﺮان/ ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ ﻓﻲ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ، ﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻗﺮارات اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اÈ ﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴﺔ، وﻫﻲ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﻮﻟﺔ رﺳﻤﻴًﺎ وﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴًﺎ اﺗﺨﺎذَ ﻗﺮار اﻟﺤﺮب، ﺑﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻳﺔ اÈﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴﺔ ودورﻫﺎ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺻﻨﻊ ﻗﺮار اﻟﺤﺮب ﺗﺨﻄﻴﻄ ﺎ وﺗﺼﻌﻴﺪًا؛ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺳﻌﺖ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﺨﻠﻖ اﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ اﻟﻤﻮاﺗﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﻦ اﻟﺤﺮب ورﻓﻀﺖ أي ﺣﻞ ﺳﻠﻤﻲ ﻟÑزﻣﺔ، واﺳﺘﻌﻤﻠﺖ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ أﺷﻜﺎل اﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ اÈﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻻﺗﺨﺎذ ﻫﺬا اﻟﻘﺮار. وﺗﻘﻒ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺮار ﺣﺮب ﺣﺰﻳﺮان/ ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ، واﻟﺨﻄﻂ اﻟﻌﺴﻜﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ وﺿﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻫﻴﺌﺔ ارﻛﺎن اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﻴﺶ اÈﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻲ ﺑﻐﺮض ﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺣﺪود إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: ﺣﺮب ﺣﺰﻳﺮان/ ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ 1967، إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ، ﻟﻴﻔﻲ إﺷﻜﻮل. Te official Israeli narrative of the June 1967 War depicts the country as having been dragged unwillingly into a conflict for which it had not planned. A close inspection of a number of detailed sources, scattered across a variety of published Hebrew materials, paint a picture entirely at odds with such a claim however. In this paper, the author addresses the Israeli decision to go to war in June 1967 by examining the steps taken by the Israeli government—legally, the only body mandated to declare war. Te author also examines the developments in the stance taken by the Israeli military command, which was instrumental in the decision to go to war. At the time, the Israeli military worked to create the right opportunity to declare war, refusing to accept any attempts at a peaceful resolution of the conflict and coerced the government into war through a variety of means.

ﺗﺒﻨ ﻰ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﻮن اوروﺑﻴﻮن واﻟﺪﺑﻠﻮﻣﺎﺳﻴﻮن واÈ ﻋﻼم واﻟﺮأي اﻟﻌﺎم، ﺑﺤﻤﺎسٍ، ﺳﻨﺔ 2011، ﻣﺎ ﺳُ ﻤﻲ اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ. وﺗﻌﻬﺪ اﻻﺗﺤﺎد ا وروﺑﻲ ﺑﺪﻋﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﺤﻮّل اﻟﺤﺎﺻﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺑﺴﺨﺎء. وﻣﻊ ذﻟﻚ، ﻟﻢ ﻳﺮقَاوروﺑﻴﻮن إﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى وﻋﻮدﻫﻢ؛ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺤﻮّل اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اوروﺑﻲ ودوﻟﻪ اﻋﻀﺎء، ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﻮّل اﻟﺜﻮرات اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻌﻨﻒ واﻟﺤﺮب اﻫﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺒﻠﺪان، واﺳﺘﻌﺎدة اﻟﺤﻜﻢ اﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪادي ﻓﻲ أﺧﺮى، إﻟﻰ ﻣﺘﻔﺮﺟﻴﻦ ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮن ﻣﻊ ﻋﻮارض ازﻣﺔ ﺑﺪﻟ ﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎر اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات. وﺑﺪﻟ ﺎ ﻣﻦ أن ﻳﺆﺛ ﺮ اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اوروﺑﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ أﻃﻠﻘﻬﺎ اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ، أﺛ ﺮت ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﺎت ﺑﻘﻮة ﻓﻲ أوروﺑﺎ. ﺗﺤﻠﻞ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اوروﺑﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ "اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ"، وأدواﺗﻪ ﻓﻲ ذﻟﻚ، وأوﻟﻮﻳﺎﺗﻪ، وﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﺤﻮّﻟﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪى اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻴﺔ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اورﺑﻲ، اﻟﺮﺑﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ، ﺗﻮﻧﺲ. In 2011, European politicians, diplomats, media, and publics enthusiastically embraced the so-called Arab Spring. Te EU pledged to generously support transformation processes initiated in the region. Yet, Europeans – as other third parties – have not lived up to their promises. Against the backdrop of the Arab uprisings turning into violence and civil war in some countries and authoritarian restoration in others, the EU and its member states have been largely reduced to being bystanders, dealing with the symptoms of crises rather than impacting – let alone shaping – the path of developments. Indeed, rather than the EU impacting on the dynamics unleashed by the Arab Spring, these dynamics have strongly impacted on Europe. In order to explain this phenomenon, this paper analyzes the EU's approaches, instruments and priorities – and how the latter have changed over the course of the last years.

ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺶ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ا دﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﻃﺮ ﻣﻔﻬﻮم اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺪول اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﺴﺮﺣًﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ، ﺑﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺒﻨﻴﻮﻳﺔ وأﺑﻌﺎدﻫﺎ. وأوﺿﺤﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة ا ﻛﺎدﻳﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ أدﺑﻴﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﻠﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، وﻧﺎﻗﺸﺖ إن ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر ﺗ ﻌﺪّ رﻳﻌًﺎ أو ﻣﺼﺎدر ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ اﻋﺘﻴﺎدﻳﺔ. وأﻃﺮت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺎءً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺸﺌﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ أﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﺎﻧﺤﻴﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ اﻟﺪاﻋﻤﺔ ﻟÝﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﻲ، وأﻣﻮال اﻟﻤﻘﺎﺻّﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻠﻴًﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ إﻟﻰ ﺧﺰﻳﻨﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﻤﻮﺟﺐ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎت ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ. وأﺧﻴﺮًا، اﻗﺘﺮﺣﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ، ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﺎﻟ ﺎ. وﺗﻘﺘﺮح اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻴﻮﺑﺘﺮوﻣﻨﻴﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﻧﺔ؛ رﻛﻮد ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ داﺧﻠﻲ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﻧﺸﺎط ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ، وﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﺮوﺿﺔ ﺧﺎرﺟﻴًﺎ، وﻧﻈﺎم ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻲ ﻫﺶ، واﻧﻌﺪام اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ، واﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﺘﻤﺤﻮر ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻳﻊ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟًﺎ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ، ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ، اﻟﺪﻋﻢ اﻟﺪوﻟﻲ، ﻓﻠﺴﻄﻴﻦ. Tis study is a theoretical and practical precedence in conceptualizing a rentier state in Palestine. It sets the possibility for understanding the underlying principles of the performance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) since its inception in 1994. It provides a platform for utilizing rentier state theory (RST) in a non-carbon state as a framework for analysing its political economy. More profoundly, it attempts to utilize RST in understanding the sate society relation under the complex political structural reality in Palestine. Firstly, the study makes the case for the gap in literature with regards to non-carbon based rentier states. It does so by providing a short history of literature and an overview of the sub-literature that followed with regards to conditional and specialized theories on the rentier state. Secondly, it elaborates on the PA's sources of income and debates whether they are rents. It categorizes rents in the Palestinian case to include international donations to the PA, and Israeli processed and controlled clearance taxes. Both sources amount to over 70% of the PA's expenditure. Tirdly, it proposes five characteristics that exemplify the non-carbon rentier state. It proposes that flexible neopatrimonialism, external imposed economic policy, active foreign policy contrasted by inactive internal policy, fragile tax collection system and unreliable financial flows, and rentier based economy best describe the non-carbon rentier state using the PA as an example.

ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺶ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ إﺣﺪى أﻫﻢ ﻣﺸﻜﻼت اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺔ اﻟﻠﻴﺒﺮاﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻴﻮم؛ أي اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺾ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﻢ اﻟﻜﺎﻣﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﻴﺘﻬﺎ واﻟﻤﺤﻔﺰ ﻟﺘﻄﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺴﻴﺎدة اﻟﺸﻌﺒﻴﺔ، وﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻠﻴﺒﺮاﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻜﺰة ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺒﺪأ اﻟﺤﺮﻳﺔ اﻟﻔﺮدﻳﺔ، وﻫﻤﺎ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎن ﻳﻌﻤﻼن ﺑﺸﻜﻞ داﺋﻢ ﻓﻲ اﺗﺠﺎﻫﻴﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻴﻦ. وﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ أزﻣﺔ ﺑﺮوز اﻟﺘﻴﺎر اﻟﺸﻌﺒﻮي وﺳﻴﺎدﺗﻪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ا ﻣﻴﺮﻛﻴﺔ. وﺗﺨﻠﺺ إﻟﻰ أن اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺾ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺔ اﻟﻠﻴﺒﺮاﻟﻴﺔ ﻳﻤﻴﻞ إﻟﻰ أن ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺗﻔﺎوﺗﺎت وﻣﺼﺎﻟﺢ اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ واﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺛﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ وﻋﺮﻗﻴﺔ. وﻣﻊ أن ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺾ ﻻ ﺗﻘﺘﺼﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ اﻣﻴﺮﻛﻴﺔ وﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﻞ ﺗﺘﻌﺪاﻫﺎ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻘﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ ذاﺗﻪ ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺾ ﻣﺎﺛﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺎت اﻟﻠﻴﺒﺮاﻟﻴﺔ، اﻟﺘﻲ ﻳﻄﻐﻰ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ا¤ﺧﺮ؛ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ أﺣﺪ ﺧﻴﺎرﻳﻦ: ﻧﻈﺎم ﻧﺨﺒﻮي أو ﻧﻈﺎم ﺷﻌﺒﻮي، ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺎﺛﻞ ا¤ن، ﺑﻤﺎ ﻳﻀﻊ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ اﻣﻴﺮﻛﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﺔ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﻀ ﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺣﺎد وﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ، وﻳﻔﺘﺢ اﻟﺒﺎب ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠ ﺎ أﻣﺎم ﺑﺮوز ﺻﻴﻐﺔ دﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺔ رﺑﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻐﺎﻳﺮة ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺔ اﻟﻠﻴﺒﺮاﻟﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﺮﻓﻬﺎ ﻫﺬا اﻟﺒﻠﺪ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺔ، اﻟﻠﻴﺒﺮاﻟﻴﺔ، اﻟﺸﻌﺒﻮﻳﺔ، اﻟﻨﺨﺒﻮﻳﺔ. Tis paper discusses one of the most pressing challenges facing liberal democracies, specifically, the tensions between the concept of popular consent (or "sovereignty of the people") and the protection of individual freedoms. Tese two aspects of democracy have been in liberal democracies across time and space, argues the author, but the paper examines in detail the rise of a populist bloc in the United States. Te author asserts that the self-contradiction contained within democracy reflects social and economic differences and not ethnic or cultural variance. Te author concludes that the conflict between these two aspects of democracy produces a system of government which favors one aspect over the other. Tis, the author says, creates sharp social conflict in America and could give rise to a novel form of democracy there.

ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ أﺣﺪ ﺟﻮاﻧﺐ ﻋﻘﺪة ﻛﺮﻛﻮك اﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﺎ ﻓﺘﺌﺖ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺳﻘﻮط اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ، وذﻟﻚ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ اﻟﻤﺄزق اﻟﺬي آل إﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﺼﻴﺮ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻛﺮﻛﻮك، ﻣﻨﺬ أول ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ اﻗﺘﺮاع ﻟﻤﺠﻠﺲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎم 2005. وﺗﺘﺘﺒّﻊ ﻫﺬه اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ ﻣﺴﺎر اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻت اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻮﻏﺮاﻓﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ، وﻣﺎ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﺮات ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﺘﻬﺎ اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﻗﻴﺔ، ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺳﺘﻨﻄﺎق ﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﺮه اﻟﺘﻌﺪادات واﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮات اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ أﺟﺮﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺲ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻟﻌﺮاﻗﻴﺔ اﻟﺤﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻋﺎم 1921. وﺗﺮﻣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ذﻟﻚ إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﻄﻼع ﻛﻴﻒ أﻧﺘﺠﺖ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻت وأﺟﺠﺖ ﺧﻼﻓﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻄﻮط ﺗﻤﺎس ﻋﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﺣﻮل ﺣﻖ اﻻﻗﺘﺮاع ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ؛ أدت إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﻛﺮﻛﻮك ﻣﻦ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺠﺎﻟﺲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺮاق ﻟﺪورﺗﻴﻦ اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﻴﺘﻴﻦ إﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ا¤ ن، 2009 و 2013. وﺗﻨﺒﺮي اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﺼﻮرة اﻟﺘﺎرﻳﺨﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﺐ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﻬﺪﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ إﺑﺎن ﺣﻜﻢ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ، ﻗﺒﻞ أن ﺗﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﻰ رﺳﻢ ﺻﻮرة اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻜﺒﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ اﻟﻜﺮدﻳﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎم 2003. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: ﻛﺮﻛﻮك، اﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺮ اﻟﺪﻳﻤﻮﻏﺮاﻓﻲ، اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ اﻟﻤﺘﻨﺎزع ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ. Tis paper investigates the crisis in which provincial elections in Kirkuk has been enmeshed since the first provincial polls in post-Saddam Iraq held in 2005. It plots the trajectory of ethnic demographic changes in Kirkuk since the formation of the modern Iraqi state in 1921 and probes how these transformations inflamed discord along ethnic fault lines leading to excluding Kirkuk from two provincial elections, 2009 and 2013, till now. Tracing the intensification of the Kirkuk crisis against the backdrop of the failure of constitutional and legal solutions designed to resolve the so-called "disputed internal boundaries" problem, the paper analyzes the election results and demographic data in Kirkuk to shed light on the deepening electoral crisis in the province. It concludes by making recommendations aimed at reforming electoral registration in Kirkuk.

ﺗﺸﻬﺪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﻣﻨﺬ أواﺧﺮ أﻳﺎر/ ﻣﺎﻳﻮ 2017 أزﻣﺔ دﺑﻠﻮﻣﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ دول ﻣﺠﻠﺲ اﻟﺘﻌﺎون اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻫﻲ ا ﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪةً ﻣﻨﺬ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺲ ﻋﺎم 1981. ﺑﺪأت ا زﻣﺔ ﺑﺤﻤﻠﺔ إﻋﻼﻣﻴّﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ دوﻟﺔ ﻗﻄﺮ، ﻗﺎدﺗﻬﺎ وﺳﺎﺋﻞ إﻋﻼم ﺳﻌﻮدﻳﺔ وإﻣﺎراﺗﻴﺔ. وﺑﺨﻼف أزﻣﺔ ﺳﺤﺐ اﻟﺴﻔﺮاء ﻋﺎم 2014، أﻗﺪﻣﺖ ﺛﻼث دول ﺧﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ اﻟﺴﻌﻮدﻳﺔ، واﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ، واﻣﺎرات ﻣﻊ ﻣﺼﺮ، ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺰﻳﺮان/ ﻳﻮﻧﻴﻮ 2017، ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻄﻊ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟﺪﺑﻠﻮﻣﺎﺳﻴﺔ وﻓﺮض ﺣﺼﺎر ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻄﺮ ﺛﻢ ﺳﻠ ﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ، وأﻣﻬﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﺸﺮة أﻳﺎم ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ أو ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﺔ ﺳﻴﻨﺎرﻳﻮﻫﺎت ﺗﺼﻌﻴﺪﻳﺔ. وﻓﻲ اﻃﺎر ﻧﻔﺴﻪ، ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﻫﺬه اﻟﺪول إﻟﻰ ﻋﺰل ﻗﻄﺮ دﺑﻠﻮﻣﺎﺳﻴًﺎ وﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺟﺒﺎرﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺨﻀﻮع، ﻏﻴﺮ أنّ اﻟﻘﻮى اﻟﻜﺒﺮى ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﺖ ﺑﻤﺴﺆوﻟﻴﺔ أﻛﺒﺮ ﺗﺠﺎه ازﻣﺔ، وﺑﺪأت ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﻴﻂ ﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﺘﻬﺎ. ﺗﺴﻠﻂ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﻟﻀﻮء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺬور ازﻣﺔ اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ وﻣﺴﺎراﺗﻬﺎ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺮﺟﺔ ﺑﺤﻜﻢ ﺗﺪاﺧﻞ أدوار ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﻴﻦ اﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﻦ واﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: ازﻣﺔ اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻴﺔ، ﺣﺼﺎر ﻗﻄﺮ، ﻣﺠﻠﺲ اﻟﺘﻌﺎون اﻟﺨﻠﻴﺠﻲ. Since late May 2017, the Gulf region has been witness to the most intense diplomatic crisis since the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1981. Tis paper attempts to highlight the roots of the present-day Gulf crisis and explore the potential, complicated outcomes, taking in the roles of various regional and global players. Te crisis begun with a vicious smear campaign against Qatar and led by Saudi- and Emirati-state owned media. In contrast to the 2014 diplomatic rif in which the Ambassadors of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain were withdrawn from Doha, this latest crisis also included a complete severing of diplomatic ties on the part of the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in addition to Egypt.To this was later added a complete blockade of Qatar by air, sea and land. Te countries leading the siege on Doha later presented a ten-point ultimatum to Qatar to fulfill within 10 days. A further attempt by the countries leading the blockade to isolate Qatar on the world stage failed, however, as leading world powers opted to play a more constructive role and mediate an end to the crisis.

ﺗﺮﺻﺪ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎت اﻟﺮأي اﻟﻌﺎم اﻟﺴﻌﻮدي ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻀﻴﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ وﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ اﻻﻋﺘﺮاف ﺑﺈﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ، اﺳﺘﻨﺎدا إﻟﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺎم 2016. وﺗﺄﺗﻲ أﻫﻤﻴﺔ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮء اﻟﺘﻄﻮرات واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺸﻬﺪﻫﺎ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ وﺻﻮل دوﻧﺎﻟﺪ ﺗﺮاﻣﺐ إﻟﻰ ﺳﺪة اﻟﺮﺋﺎﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة اÇﻣﻴﺮﻛﻴﺔ؛ إذ أﺑﺮزت اﻻﺻﻄﻔﺎﻓﺎت اÅ ﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﻳﺪة ﻣﻴﻠ ﺎ ﻟﺪى ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺪول اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ إﻟﻰ إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ اÇﻋﺪاء واﻟﺤﻠﻔﺎء، وﻇﻬﺮت أﺻﻮات ﻋﺪة ﺗﻨﺎدي ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻊ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت ﻣﻊ إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﻤﺒﺮر اﻟﺘﻼﻗﻲ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪاء إﻳﺮان، أو ﺣﺮﻛﺎت اÅﺳﻼم اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ وﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺎوﻣﺔ اÅﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﺣﻤﺎس. ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ﻣﻔﺘﺎﺣﻴﺔ: اﻟﺮأي اﻟﻌﺎم، اﻟﺴﻌﻮدﻳﺔ، إﺳﺮاﺋﻴﻞ، ﺣﻤﺎس Tis paper relies on findings from the 2016 Arab Opinion Index to chart Saudi public attitudes towards a number of issues related to the Palestinian Cause, and specifically how Saudis feel about a potential normalization of diplomatic relations between their country and Israel. Tis latter question has added urgency in the present-day climate in the Arab world, with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House underscoring increasing demands within a number of Arab states for a normalization of ties with Israel, which some see as a natural ally against Iran or political Islamist groups, including the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).

This report highlights some of the major milestones of the Arab democratic transition. The countries covered include Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

This report chronicles some of the most significant developments relating to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

​For centuries, Arabs and Kurds have shared not only the same geographical space, but also the same cultural sphere. Even during periods of heighten awareness of their ethnic differences, it would have been impossible to speak of anything approaching a “Kurdish Question” within the Arab world prior the twentieth century and the advent—and global spread—of the nation-state model born in the 19th century, which, in its Middle Eastern variant, was always rooted in ethnicity. This was complicated by the need of the emergent nation-states to absorb and integrate nascent political identities born of these ethnic groups.

​Arab narratives of the June, 1967 War remained limited in scope even today, 50 years after the cessation of hostilities. “The June, 1967 War” was held in Doha, Qatar from June 20-22, 2017, the three-day meeting was devoted to studying the events of the war and its ongoing repercussions through the prisms of military history and strategic analysis.

​For centuries, Arabs and Kurds have shared not only the same geographical space, but also the same cultural sphere. Even during periods of heighten awareness of their ethnic differences, it would have been impossible to speak of anything approaching a “Kurdish Question” within the Arab world prior the twentieth century and the advent—and global spread—of the nation-state model born in the 19th century, which, in its Middle Eastern variant, was always rooted in ethnicity. This was complicated by the need of the emergent nation-states to absorb and integrate nascent political identities born of these ethnic groups.

​Arab narratives of the June, 1967 War remained limited in scope even today, 50 years after the cessation of hostilities. “The June, 1967 War” was held in Doha, Qatar from June 20-22, 2017, the three-day meeting was devoted to studying the events of the war and its ongoing repercussions through the prisms of military history and strategic analysis.